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Demand Weakness Extends
Freight demand remains under pressure, with July marking the 30th consecutive month of shipment declines per Cass Information Systems. Shipments fell 1.8% month-over-month (↓1.7% seasonally adjusted) and 6.9% year-over-year, the steepest annual decline since January. Volumes have now contracted for three straight months, reflecting persistent weakness across freight markets.
Outlook
- Tariff impacts: Ongoing steel/aluminum tariffs now cover $320B in imports, including truck trailers and industrial equipment. These are likely to create cost-push inflation and dampen demand in key freight-heavy industries.
- Economic drag: Trade uncertainty and weak housing construction continue to weigh on freight activity.
- Capacity shift ahead: Cass notes that lower commercial vehicle production and manufacturing job losses
Capacity is Tightening Modestly
Driver employment remains unstable.
Bureau of Labor Statistics: trucking employment ↑ 4,000 jobs in July after losses in May/June. Swings are driven by tariff timing; import frontloading creates short bursts of hiring, then pullbacks. With front-loading largely done and tariffs raising consumer prices, more driver job losses are likely.
Carrier Operating Costs
Equipment prices climbing with tariffs.
Tariffs have already added 2–4% to new tractor prices, with further increases likely. That makes fleet renewal/expansion harder to justify.
Fuel squeeze.
U.S. diesel averaging $3.81/gal (↑ slightly). Higher prices cut into margins, especially for small carriers lacking strong fuel surcharge recovery.