The freight market continues its shift toward carrier favorability as shrinking capacity (not surging freight volumes) drives tighter conditions across North America. AI infrastructure investments are fueling growth in specialized freight, while higher operating costs and fewer available trucks are pushing spot rates to their highest levels in years.
Here’s what shippers should be watching heading into the second half of 2026.
Demand Level & Outlook
AI infrastructure is fueling freight demand
The biggest story in freight isn’t consumer spending; it’s artificial intelligence. Imports of AI-related hardware, including computers, GPUs, and memory components, continue to drive U.S. import growth while many traditional consumer categories, including vehicles and pharmaceuticals, have softened. Electrical equipment and machinery sales also remain elevated as data center construction accelerates.
At the same time, an industrial investment cycle is generating demand across specialized freight networks.
The rapid expansion of AI infrastructure, data centers, power grid projects, and semiconductor manufacturing is creating sustained demand for heavy-haul equipment, flatbed capacity, transformers, switchgear, cooling systems, and construction materials. Import activity is also surging as shippers continue pulling freight forward, with major ports experiencing significant year-over-year growth.
Recover continues but freight growth remains uneven
Financial analysts remain optimistic about transportation earnings, particularly within LTL, as manufacturing activity improves and contract pricing strengthens. However, freight volumes themselves remain relatively flat. Recent improvements in carrier profitability are being driven more by reduced capacity than by significant increases in freight demand.
Key Takeaways:
- AI-related imports continue to reshape freight demand.
- LTL carriers are expected to post another strong earnings season.
- Capacity reductions (not stronger freight volumes) are driving the current market recovery.
- Energy prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and evolving trade patterns remain important variables to watch.
Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs
Capacity continues to tighten
Truck capacity continues to exit the market as stricter driver qualification standards, immigration enforcement, and fewer available drivers reduce the overall carrier pool. Flatbed availability has declined significantly while load postings continue to rise across multiple equipment types.
Operating costs keep rising
Insurance remains one of the largest challenges facing carriers. Over the past five years, insurance expenses among the nation’s largest carriers have increased dramatically while overall profits have declined. Rising litigation costs, healthcare expenses, equipment repair costs, and larger jury verdicts continue to pressure carrier margins. Diesel prices also appear positioned for additional increases later this year as refinery utilization moderates.
What this means for shippers
As carriers become more selective, maintaining strong transportation partnerships becomes increasingly important. Shippers should evaluate lane-level performance, not simply rate comparisons, to ensure consistent service as market conditions tighten.
Spot & Contract Market Trends
Spot rates reach historic highs
Spot market pricing reached record levels across dry van, reefer, and flatbed freight heading into the July 4 holiday. For the first time since early 2022, average dry van spot rates exceeded contract pricing—a significant indicator that carrier pricing power is returning.
Produce season strengthens reefer markets
Seasonal produce volumes have finally generated the type of pricing pressure typically associated with summer shipping. Reefer spot rates have climbed substantially since April, with truck shortages emerging across several key agricultural markets.
Market outlook
The second half of 2026 appears poised for continued tightening. While freight demand remains relatively stable, fewer available trucks, higher operating costs, and strengthening spot rates suggest shippers should prepare for a more competitive transportation environment.