At Spot, we understand the vital role that up-to-date information plays in navigating the dynamic logistics market. Each month, we bring you a comprehensive logistics market update. We dive into the latest trends, challenges, and innovations shaping the logistics sector. Join us as we empower you with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions in this fast-paced industry.
Demand Level & Outlook
Demand is stable, not booming
The Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) sits at 10,110, below its historical average of 11,731. While volumes remain muted, the decline has stopped — a key signal in freight cycles.
Reefer:
Reefer remains structurally strong: balanced overall, but tight in key produce corridors. The load-to-truck ratio is 17.41.
Dry Van:
Likely bottomed in 2024. Shipments improved in Q4, and load activity is up 70% year-over-year. The load-to-truck ratio of 9.82 remains elevated historically.
Flatbed:
Energy demand is softer (Permian rig activity ↓ 19% YoY), but construction freight is strengthening, with load posts up 74% year-over-year and a load-to-truck ratio of 57.77.
Bottom line: Stabilization is underway, with tightening pressure building beneath the surface.
Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs
Capacity contraction remains the dominant story
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Trucking employment is down 125,000 jobs (-7.9%) from the 2022 peak — back to 2017 levels.
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Dry van employment is down 10.2% from peak.
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December 2025 capacity was down 3.5% year-over-year.
The market is now at a 12-year low in capacity.
Tender rejections (OTRI) sit at 13.40%, as carriers decline lower-paying freight. Fewer new carrier authorities and continued exits reinforce net contraction.
Carriers are expected to remain cautious about expansion given policy uncertainty and recent weather-driven rate volatility.
Spot & Contract Market Trends
Contract rates were stable to slightly higher in January:
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Dry Van: $2.48/mile (↑ $0.02)
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Reefer: $2.81/mile (↑ $0.02)
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Flatbed: $3.04/mile (↓ $0.01)
Spot rates remain elevated year-over-year:
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Dry Van: ↑ 26% YoY
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Reefer: ↑ 31% YoY
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Flatbed: ↑ 13% YoY
Weather-driven volatility temporarily inflated van and reefer pricing. Flatbed’s strength has been steadier and more tied to underlying industrial/project freight.