At Spot, we understand the vital role that up-to-date information plays in navigating the dynamic logistics market. Each month, we bring you a comprehensive logistics market update. We dive into the latest trends, challenges, and innovations shaping the logistics sector. Join us as we empower you with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions in this fast-paced industry.
Demand Level & Outlook
Where Demand Stands Today
According to trucking ton-mile data, freight demand reached a seasonally adjusted low point in Q2 2024 and has been slowly improving since.
That modest demand recovery, combined with significant carrier exits throughout 2024 and early 2025, helps explain why capacity has tightened even though freight volumes remain historically soft.
To put growth into perspective:
-
- Q3 2025 demand was up just 0.8% year-over-year
-
- Compare that to prior bull markets:
-
- Q3 2017: ↑ 2.4%
-
- Q4 2017: ↑ 3.7%
-
- Compare that to prior bull markets:
Those past cycles saw rapid demand expansion for 18 months or more. There is currently no evidence of that kind of acceleration heading into 2026.
Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs
Capacity & Costs: Tight, But Under Strain
Transportation capacity tightened sharply at year-end. The Logistics Managers’ Index shows capacity fell to a four-year low in December:
-
- Transportation Capacity Index: 36.9
-
- Lowest since October 2021
-
- First contraction since March 2022, when the freight recession began
At the same time:
-
- Transportation utilization rose to 58.2
-
- Transportation pricing increased to 66.7, the highest since January 2025
-
- Pricing sat nearly 30 points above capacity, signaling a tight market on paper
Spot & Contract Market Trends
Contract Rates: Stable, For Now
Contract pricing has been far less reactive than spot markets. Retailers and shippers entered peak season with:
-
- Inventory plans are set months in advance
-
- Elevated inventory-to-sales ratios
-
- A cautious approach to restocking
Post-holiday inventory drawdowns are normal seasonal behavior, not a signal of a Q1 demand surge. With sales largely flat on a price-adjusted basis, there is little incentive for shippers to lock in higher contract rates early in 2026.