At Spot, we understand the vital role that up-to-date information plays in navigating the dynamic logistics market. Each month, we bring you a comprehensive logistics market update. We dive into the latest trends, challenges, and innovations shaping the logistics sector. Join us as we empower you with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions in this fast-paced industry. Market Update.
Canadian Tariffs Surge: A Hidden Shock
While China has dominated the headlines, Canadian imports are bearing the brunt of new tariffs under the current administration:
•Average monthly tariffs in 2024: $34M
•March & April 2025 tariffs: $660M and $675M, a 19.5x increase
•June is expected to surge again due to 50% tariffs on steel/metal
Top affected categories
•Unwrought aluminum: $123.7M
•Auto parts: $67.5M
•Finished vehicles: $52.2M
Operating Costs: Inflation Without Pricing Power
- Stagflation Strains Margins: Carriers face the worst of both worlds, flat volumes and rates paired with rising costs. This stagflationary environment has forced many into cost-deferral decisions that may backfire long term (e.g., delayed maintenance, equipment replacement).
- Insurance a Top Pressure Point: Premiums are skyrocketing due to increased litigation and nuclear verdicts (claims >$10M). Carriers are also contending with cargo theft risks, including sophisticated scams like identity manipulation and double brokering.
Supply & Capacity: A Market in Contraction
- Carrier Exits Hit New High: In April 2025, 7,474 trucking companies exited the market, a 12-month peak and a 26% increase from March. Weekly revocation rates remain elevated, with more than 1,500 carriers losing authority each week.
- New Entrants Defy the Trend: Despite exits, new carrier authorities rose 48% month over month in April. Seasonal optimism and the lure of an eventual rate rebound keep new players entering the market, though many may be underestimating the financial headwinds.
Market Update.
At Spot, we understand the vital role that up-to-date information plays in navigating the dynamic logistics market. Each month, we bring you a comprehensive logistics market update. We dive into the latest trends, challenges, and innovations shaping the logistics sector. Join us as we empower you with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions in this fast-paced industry. Market Update.
Demand Level & Outlook
Where Demand Stands Today
According to trucking ton-mile data, freight demand reached a seasonally adjusted low point in Q2 2024 and has been slowly improving since.
That modest demand recovery, combined with significant carrier exits throughout 2024 and early 2025, helps explain why capacity has tightened even though freight volumes remain historically soft.
To put growth into perspective:
- Q3 2025 demand was up just 0.8% year-over-year
- Compare that to prior bull markets:
- Q3 2017: ↑ 2.4%
- Q4 2017: ↑ 3.7%
Those past cycles saw rapid demand expansion for 18 months or more. There is currently no evidence of that kind of acceleration heading into 2026.
Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs
Capacity & Costs: Tight, But Under Strain
Transportation capacity tightened sharply at year-end. The Logistics Managers’ Index shows capacity fell to a four-year low in December:
- Transportation Capacity Index: 36.9
- Lowest since October 2021
- First contraction since March 2022, when the freight recession began
At the same time:
- Transportation utilization rose to 58.2
- Transportation pricing increased to 66.7, the highest since January 2025
- Pricing sat nearly 30 points above capacity, signaling a tight market on paper
Spot & Contract Market Trends
Contract Rates: Stable, For Now
Contract pricing has been far less reactive than spot markets. Retailers and shippers entered peak season with:
- Inventory plans are set months in advance
- Elevated inventory-to-sales ratios
- A cautious approach to restocking
Post-holiday inventory drawdowns are normal seasonal behavior, not a signal of a Q1 demand surge. With sales largely flat on a price-adjusted basis, there is little incentive for shippers to lock in higher contract rates early in 2026.
Market Update.
Spot has been recognized by FourKites®, a leader in AI-driven supply chain transformation, on its Premier Carrier List for the first half of 2025, identifying carriers and brokers that have shown outstanding tracking performance across all modes of transport globally.
The Premier Carrier List spotlights carriers and brokers who consistently provide exceptional visibility and service quality to their customers. These carriers reduce manual check calls, minimize dwell time, streamline carrier-shipper workflows, and help shippers respond quickly to operational changes and disruptions.
As a leader in AI-driven supply chain transformation, FourKites pioneered the Intelligent Control Tower™ powered by the world’s largest real-time visibility network. Their platform creates comprehensive digital twins of your supply chain with AI-powered digital workers to automate resolution, improve collaboration, and drive outcomes across all stakeholders.
View The Full List >> https://www.fourkites.com/premier-carriers/
How Spot & Red Technologies Build Practical, Real-World AI Solutions That Actually Work
Artificial intelligence isn’t new to logistics, but honest conversations about what actually works are. For years, Spot’s wholly-owned subsidiary and technology arm, Red Technologies, has been building and deploying AI in ways that reflect the real-world pace, pressure, and complexity of freight. The work wasn’t linear; it was iterative and deeply collaborative.
What follows is a behind-the-scenes look at how the engineers, data scientists, and operations teams of Red Technologies have adopted AI by doing what logistics has always required: solving the problem directly in front of them, learning from the people closest to the work, and scaling only when the results earn it.
This whitepaper blends two perspectives rarely found in a single narrative:
- The data side: where AI is fueled, shaped, and validated
- The development side: where ideas become actual systems inside Spot’s platform
Together, the two perspectives reveal how the Red Technologies team approaches AI with clarity, humility, and a firm focus on operational value.
Read and download the latest white paper here
In the logistics industry, we are used to high-stakes deadlines and urgent requests. It could be a production line shut down or a retail shelf that needs restocking. But one Tuesday night, Brian Jobe, a Senior National Account Director at Spot, received a call from a longtime customer that changed his perspective on what “urgent” really means.
The Request: Two Cases, One Huge Problem
The call came in late. Jobe’s customer, a baby formula manufacturer, needed a shipment moved from Indianapolis to Kentucky immediately.
At first glance, it didn’t sound like much—just two small cases. But the backstory was more serious. A mother in Kentucky was down to her last scoops of specialized formula for her son. Because of his severe dietary restrictions, this wasn’t something she could just pick up at a local grocery store. Her original shipment had been delayed for days, and she was in a state of pure panic.
The situation had escalated all the way to the manufacturer’s CEO. That’s when they called us.
Going the Extra Mile (Literally)
Jobe knew we couldn’t just treat this like any other load.
- The Search: Jobe immediately tapped into Spot’s carrier network and found a trusted partner an hour away who was willing to push his limits to make the pickup before the facility closed.
- The Communication: As the driver headed south, Jobe got on the phone with the mother of the infant in need of the formula. He could hear the panic in her voice. He gave her his personal cell number and promised her, “We’ve got you. I will stay awake until this is at your door.”
- The Delivery: Throughout the night, Jobe traded updates. At 4:00 A.M., the driver arrived at a quiet residential neighborhood. To ensure the exhausted mother could get as much sleep as possible, the driver quietly tucked the formula into a safe spot, snapped a photo, and moved on.
Why We Do What We Do
The next morning, Jobe’s phone was full of text messages, and he received phone calls from his customer. The mother even called him, calling the team “lifesavers.” His customer reached out to say that this was exactly why they trusted Spot—they knew that when things got dire, Jobe’s team and Spot wouldn’t just provide a truck; we would provide a solution.
In logistics, we often get caught up in the numbers, the ETAs, and the bottom line. But that night, it wasn’t about a “shipment.” It was about an infant who needed to eat and a mother who needed peace of mind.
At Spot, we understand that behind every pallet—or in this case, every small box—there is a person counting on us.
At Spot, we understand the vital role that up-to-date information plays in navigating the dynamic logistics market. Each month, we bring you a comprehensive logistics market update. We dive into the latest trends, challenges, and innovations shaping the logistics sector. Join us as we empower you with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions in this fast-paced industry. Market Update.
Demand Level & Outlook
Where Demand Stands Today
According to trucking ton-mile data, freight demand reached a seasonally adjusted low point in Q2 2024 and has been slowly improving since.
That modest demand recovery, combined with significant carrier exits throughout 2024 and early 2025, helps explain why capacity has tightened even though freight volumes remain historically soft.
To put growth into perspective:
- Q3 2025 demand was up just 0.8% year-over-year
- Compare that to prior bull markets:
- Q3 2017: ↑ 2.4%
- Q4 2017: ↑ 3.7%
Those past cycles saw rapid demand expansion for 18 months or more. There is currently no evidence of that kind of acceleration heading into 2026.
Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs
Capacity & Costs: Tight, But Under Strain
Transportation capacity tightened sharply at year-end. The Logistics Managers’ Index shows capacity fell to a four-year low in December:
- Transportation Capacity Index: 36.9
- Lowest since October 2021
- First contraction since March 2022, when the freight recession began
At the same time:
- Transportation utilization rose to 58.2
- Transportation pricing increased to 66.7, the highest since January 2025
- Pricing sat nearly 30 points above capacity, signaling a tight market on paper
Spot & Contract Market Trends
Contract Rates: Stable, For Now
Contract pricing has been far less reactive than spot markets. Retailers and shippers entered peak season with:
- Inventory plans are set months in advance
- Elevated inventory-to-sales ratios
- A cautious approach to restocking
Post-holiday inventory drawdowns are normal seasonal behavior, not a signal of a Q1 demand surge. With sales largely flat on a price-adjusted basis, there is little incentive for shippers to lock in higher contract rates early in 2026.
Market Update.
When freight stops moving, every shipper knows the ticking clock becomes a countdown to a service failure, a claim, or a lost customer relationship. For high-value, time-sensitive, and perishable goods, reliability isn’t a perk; it’s non-negotiable. That’s where The Spot Experience comes in.
This is the story of how one of Spot’s National Account Directors, Nathan Lanhart, who manages some of Spot’s most critical lanes for key accounts, defines “commitment” not by contracts, but by showing up when everyone else says no.
The 2 AM Litmus Test: The Difference Between Carriers
The scene: 2:00 a.m. on a Saturday. One of Nathan’s drivers, carrying a crucial, perishable, and high-touch load running into Tampa, is stranded at a weigh station. The problem? A flat trailer tire. The truck is tagged “Out of Service.”
For most carriers, this is a textbook problem solved by a single phone call: roadside assistance.
But for Nathan’s customer, the news was grim: roadside estimated a two-and-a-half to three-hour minimum wait, with no guarantee. For a sensitive shipment with a tight delivery window, that delay was already a potential claim. The typical, institutional response was failing.
Solving the Problem (Not Just Escalating It)
The next standard steps for a logistics professional would be to initiate expensive contingency measures:
- Transload: Hire two additional box trucks and movers to manually shift the product. Costly, time-consuming, and risky.
- Repower: Send a fresh tractor to swap out the trailer. Difficult if the disabled truck’s brakes are locked without air.
Nathan chose none of the above. He knew the carrier was close to the receiver—about eight miles. He also knew that the trailer tire wasn’t damaged; it had simply fallen off the bead (the rim seat), leaking air and rendering the vehicle non-compliant.
Instead of escalating the problem up the cost chain, Nathan grabbed his personal truck and drove to the weigh station.
“I was like, ‘Hey, you’re like 15 minutes from me. I’m just going to go get my truck. I’m gonna go meet you out there, see what’s going on.'”
Using his small, on-board air compressor and drawing on old mechanic shop experience, Nathan and his driver spent 20 minutes physically manipulating the massive trailer tire, which can weigh around 100 pounds fighting to get the bead to catch and seal. Finally, they succeeded in reseating the tire and inflating it to get the truck back on the road.
Result: Hours of Delay Averted. Costly Transload Eliminated. Service Maintained.
Building the Network of Trust
Nathan didn’t just save the load; he followed the truck to the receiver. This might seem like over-servicing, but it was a calculated move to reinforce service and open doors for future growth.
At the receiver, he:
- Verified Quality: Ensured the freshly reseated tire remained stable all the way to the dock.
- Introduced Himself: Met the dockworkers and warehouse operations team—the people who actually handle the freight.
- Gained Intelligence: These on-the-ground relationships often provide early intelligence on new lanes or inbound challenges before they are officially communicated to procurement.
Shipper Takeaway: A carrier who invests in on-the-ground relationships—not just with logistics managers, but with warehouse personnel—is gaining valuable, early insights that help you plan better. They put a face with the name on the Bill of Lading.
The Return on Radical Commitment
For shippers, the true value of a partner like Nathan isn’t just in competitive rates, but in the certainty that when an inevitable crisis hits, they won’t default to the easiest or most expensive option.
Customers now automatically entrust Nathan and his team with the hardest, most sensitive freight, often waiving standard bid processes.
The message is clear from his customers: “We’ll send it over to Nathan, and I’m not gonna worry about it.”
The difference between a good carrier and a great one is often the willingness to roll up your sleeves at 2:00 a.m. on a Saturday and do what others won’t. When selecting your next logistics partner, ask yourself who you want to answer the phone when the unexpected happens.
In Logistics, time is everything.
It’s measured in transit windows, response times, dock appointments, and delivery confirmations. It’s tracked, optimized, and compressed, and often lost in the margins between systems, partners, and priorities.
For many shippers, time becomes something to manage instead of something to use.
At Spot, we believe time should be given back.
That belief is a solid part of the foundations of The Spot Experience. The defining difference in how we serve our customers.
It’s not just how we move freight. It’s about how we spend our time so our customers can spend theirs on what matters most.
More Than Freight
Plenty of providers can say they move freight. Fewer can say they move it with intention.
We deliver more than shipments. We deliver confidence, clarity, and peace of mind. We do the things others won’t. We sweat the details others overlook. We focus on outcomes, not transactions. That means answering the phone when it rings. Solving problems before they escalate. Communicating proactively. Taking ownership when something goes wrong and making it right.
These moments may seem small, but they carry weight. When done consistently, they remove friction from the day. They reduce stress. They create confidence. And most importantly, they build trust and give time back.
Innovation That Works for People
Innovation is often defined by technology alone: faster systems, smarter algorithms, more data. However, we see it differently. True innovation happens when technology and people work together seamlessly.
We develop advanced technology designed to keep businesses moving. Our systems provide visibility, intelligence, and control across the supply chain. They help identify risks earlier, streamline decisions, and reduce friction.
But technology is only powerful when it’s paired with human insight.
The Spot Experience combines smart tools with smarter people: logistics experts who understand nuance, context, and urgency. People who know your business, your lanes, and your priorities. People who can translate data into action and action into results.
That’s innovation with purpose.
A Focus on What Matters Most
Logistics can easily become transactional. Rates, loads, lanes, repeat.
We choose a different approach.
At Spot, we focus on people, not transactions. On outcomes, not activities. On long-term partnerships, not short-term wins. We dedicate ourselves to what truly matters to our customers: reliability, clarity, and confidence.
When logistics works the way it should, it fades into the background. And when that happens, something powerful occurs when time reappears. Time to think strategically instead of reactively. Time to focus on customers instead of disruptions. Time to lead, plan, and grow. Â
And with that time comes peace of mind.
Doing Logistics Differently
What sets Spot apart isn’t a single service, system, or solution. It’s how everything works together. Our people, our technology, and our mindset. We spend our time differently, so our customers don’t have to spend theirs worrying, checking, or reacting.
We take on complexity so our customers can move with confidence.
That’s how we deliver more than freight. That’s how we deliver time back.
At Spot, we understand the vital role that up-to-date information plays in navigating the dynamic logistics market. Each month, we bring you a comprehensive logistics market update. We dive into the latest trends, challenges, and innovations shaping the logistics sector. Join us as we empower you with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions in this fast-paced industry. Market Update.
Demand Level & Outlook
Freight Demand: Weak Overall, but Not Uniform
Broad truckload demand remains soft
- The Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) is ↓ 11% year over year
- This index captures a wider mix of industrial and capital-goods freight
Consumer-oriented freight is far more resilient:
- The Truckload Volume Index (STVI), which is more heavily weighted toward food, beverage, CPG, and shorter-haul freight, is ↓ only 3% year over year
- This better reflects the freight mix experienced by large contract-focused carriers
Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs
Regulatory Enforcement Emerges as a Meaningful Supply-Side Force
- English-language proficiency enforcement and non-domiciled CDL scrutiny could remove up to 5% of industry capacity over time
- Analysts agree these measures create a rising floor under rates, but are unlikely to trigger an immediate capacity shock on their own
FTR estimates English-language enforcement may remove roughly 25,000 drivers in the first year, which is notable but not enough to independently tighten the market.
Insurance and Financing: The Wild Cards
- Insurance premiums are expected to rise meaningfully in 2026
- Financing remains tight, limiting the ability of marginal carriers to refresh equipment
- These pressures could trigger a delayed but sharper wave of capacity loss if rates do not improve
Spot & Contract Market Trends
Spot Rates Are Sending Clear Signals
Truckload spot rates excluding fuel increased 8% over a two-week period from November 19 to December 4, a sharper move than seen in the same seasonal window over the past two years. These sudden increases, rather than sustained climbs, have become a defining feature of this market cycle.
Market Update.
In the dynamic world of logistics, understanding market shifts and their implications on supply and demand is crucial. In this episode of More Than a Broker, Spot Cofounder Andrew Elsner engages with our Senior National Account Directors, Alex Buening and Theo Mascari, to explore how external factors are reshaping the logistics landscape.
The podcast also addresses the implications of regulatory changes, particularly the English Language Proficiency (ELP) guidelines and the non-domicile driver rule. These regulations have impacted driver availability and capacity, prompting shippers to reassess their strategies. The team discusses how these changes have led to changes in the spot market, affecting the overall supply and demand dynamics.
As the episode concludes, the experts reflect on how the logistics landscape is evolving. They agree that the focus on strategic partnerships with carriers is critical, as companies aim to streamline operations and reduce the number of vendors. The discussion underscores the importance of adaptability in a rapidly changing environment, with technology and regulatory factors playing key roles in shaping the future of logistics.
In summary, the logistics industry is currently navigating a complex landscape influenced by a variety of factors. From market shifts and capacity challenges to regulatory impacts and the need for strategic partnerships, it is clear that staying informed and adaptable is essential for success. As we move forward, embracing technology and fostering strong relationships within the supply chain will be vital in overcoming the challenges ahead.
Logistics Lessons in this Episode:
- Rapid Lane Shifts: Customers are demanding extreme flexibility and quickly reassigning lanes due to volatile market conditions.
- Technology as Table Stakes: Advanced reporting and technology are now mandatory requirements for securing business partnerships.
- Mini Bid Necessity: Mini bids are increasingly used to swiftly cover needs and mitigate risks following carrier failures.
- Strategic Partner Consolidation: Shippers are narrowing their focus to fewer, more reliable supply chain partners.
- Capacity Constraints: Regulatory changes are consistently impacting driver availability and tightening market capacity.
- Structural Market Reset: The logistics industry is experiencing a fundamental structural reset, not just a cyclical recession.
- Volatile Spot Rates: Supply constraints can cause freight rates to surge even amidst broader economic slumps.
- Evolving Broker Value: The role of the logistics broker is rapidly transforming to meet complex, evolving market demands.
- Pricing Optimization: Shippers are actively utilizing variable pricing models to achieve maximum cost efficiency.
- Tightening Market Forecast: Future projections anticipate a tighter market environment and potential rate increases.