The shipping world is currently in a state of “seasonal strangeness.” In our latest podcast episode, Spot Co-founder, Andrew Elsener, sits down with Senior National Account Directors Theo Mascari and Alex Buening to discuss the logistics marketplace and more. Â
From the surge in Florida floral volume to the “depleted profile” of the long-haul driver, this episode goes into the details of the current market dynamics.
The Long-Haul Crisis: It’s a Supply Side Problem
One of the most striking insights from the discussion is the state of long-haul freight. While demand hasn’t necessarily skyrocketed, the supply of drivers willing to stay on the road to fill the long-haul needs is a harder ask today than it used to be.
Fuel Tables: Gamesmanship vs. RealityÂ
With diesel prices continuing to spike, fuel is the “hot topic” in every carrier conversation. However, the team uncovers an interesting trend: Gamesmanship.
The takeaway? Shippers who try to “game” the system by adjusting fuel tables (like extending gaps or capping maximums) often find that carriers simply adjust their line-haul rates to offset the difference. At the end of the day, it costs what it costs to move the truck.
Is the Annual RFP Dead?Â
Shippers have been conducting more frequent bids than ever.
The “Low-Cost Carrier” Trap: Alex and Andrew warn against “bid fatigue” and the danger of awarding loads to the lowest bidder in a tightening market. If a carrier offers a $50 savings but defaults when the market gets tight in the summer, those “savings” evaporate instantly.
Why You Need to Listen
This episode isn’t just about numbers; it’s about the Rules of Engagement. If you want to understand why your routing guide is failing, how Mother’s Day floral surges affect your capacity, and why small fleets react faster to market shifts, you can’t afford to miss this one.
The tools you use can either be a bottleneck or a catalyst for growth. For many companies, “off-the-shelf” software is the starting point, but as the industry evolves, those standard solutions often fall short of meeting the modern customer’s needs.
In our latest What Others Won’t video, Andy Schenck, Spot’s Co-founder, shares the origin story of Red Technologies and how a bold decision in 2014 changed the trajectory of the business.
Moving Beyond Off-the-Shelf
When the journey began in 2009, the industry was a different landscape; older technologies like fax machines were still in normal use. While Spot had basic software that worked initially, it lacked the flexibility required to customize solutions for a growing list of diverse clients.
By 2014, it became clear that to do things differently, we had to build something ourselves. This led to a multi-year development process focused on creating a comprehensive system to manage the entire lifecycle of a shipment: from customer orders and carrier dispatching to complex accounting functions.
Why We Call It “Red”
Naming a piece of proprietary technology is a major milestone, but for us, the name “Red” wasn’t chosen by a marketing firm. It was a personal tribute. Andy’s business parter and Spot’s Co-founder, Andrew Elsener, suggested naming the software after Andy’s mother. Her nickname was Red. It’s a name that carries a sense of legacy and heart, reflecting the personal commitment poured into the platform.
The Power of Real-World Development
One of the greatest advantages of building proprietary tech in-house is the proximity between the people writing the code and the people moving the freight.
With Red Technologies, developers don’t work in a vacuum. They sit right alongside the operations teams, seeing the real-world impact of every line of code. This collaboration allows us to act fast when issues arise and ensures that every update serves a functional purpose for the end-user.
Spot has been named to the 2026 Transport Topics Top 100 Freight Brokerages List. The company secured the top ranking among Indiana-based freight brokers and achieved a national ranking of 26, rising four spots from 2025. The annual list ranks companies based on gross revenue from the preceding year.
Spot saw this growth during volatile business conditions last year, from compressed margins and a grueling freight market downturn to tariff-driven supply chain upheaval.
Established in 2009 by Andrew Elsener and Andy Schenck, Spot has evolved over nearly two decades into a premier third-party logistics (3PL) provider in North America. This growth is rooted in prioritizing high-caliber talent and developing proprietary technology such as the company’s TMS platform, MySpot.
Spot’s team of dedicated professionals remains focused on strengthening customers’ supply chains and fostering lasting professional relationships through reliable, technology-driven solutions.
Since 1935, Transport Topics has been a news leader in trucking and freight transportation. Its journalists help keep readers informed about all aspects of the trucking industry and help them stay ready for what’s to come. To learn who made the list and read more about the issues facing logistics companies, visit Transport Topics at https://www.ttnews.com/logistics/freightbrokerage/2026 Learn more at www.spotinc.com and listen to industry experts on the Company’s podcast, More Than A Broker, available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and other major platforms.
The freight market is sending mixed signals. Beneath flat demand headlines, a split economy is taking shape. Industrial expansion driven by AI infrastructure is offsetting softness in housing and consumer goods. At the same time, tightening capacity and rising costs are beginning to reshape rate dynamics.
Here’s what matters now.
Demand Level & Outlook
Freight demand is stabilizing, but not yet accelerating
The latest data shows ton-mile demand essentially flat year-over-year, signaling that the worst of the freight recession is behind us, but a meaningful recovery hasn’t fully taken hold.
A clear divide is emerging:
- Industrial freight tied to AI infrastructure and energy is strengthening
- Housing-related freight (like wood, appliances, and furniture) remains soft
Encouragingly, leading indicators are turning positive. Packaging and paper activity, along with pallet pricing, are both signaling increased goods movement for the first time since 2022. Historically, when these indicators align, freight volumes follow within one to two quarters.
Carrier sentiment is also improving. Class 8 truck orders surged, pointing to growing confidence in future demand.
What to watch:
Ongoing tariff risks and elevated interest rates could delay a full recovery
Q2 is shaping up to be the strongest demand window in three years, driven by produce season and early-cycle industrial activity
Q3 will depend on whether current inventory builds translate into sustained production
Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs
Capacity is Tightening Rapidly, and Costs Are Surging
The market is firmly in contraction mode, with transportation capacity shrinking at one of the fastest rates since the pandemic. At the same time, pricing is accelerating, creating a wide gap between supply and demand. Fuel is the biggest driver.
Diesel prices have spiked significantly year-over-year, now accounting for up to 30–40% of operating costs for many carriers. This has forced widespread behavioral shifts:
- Carriers are reducing routes and optimizing loads
- Smaller fleets are sidelining trucks due to cost pressures
- Regulatory changes are further reducing the available driver pool
Fuel surcharges have jumped sharply across all modes, increasing as much as 50% compared to 2025 averages.
The result: fewer trucks available and higher costs to operate them.
Spot & Contract Market Trends
Rates Are Rising, but the Story is More Nuanced Beneath the Surface
Across all modes, spot rates are significantly higher than last year, driven by a combination of tighter capacity and fuel cost pass-through. However, when fuel is removed, underlying linehaul trends vary by mode.
- Dry van and reefer: Linehaul rates softened slightly month-over-month, indicating fuel—not demand—is driving most of the increase
- Flatbed: Rates continue to climb, supported by real demand in construction and industrial sectors
Produce season is adding further pressure, particularly in reefer markets, where capacity is tightening quickly and key regions are seeing sharp rate increases.
Contract rates are also moving higher as shippers and carriers renegotiate in a volatile cost environment.
Key takeaways:
Mode-specific dynamics matter more than ever
Capacity tightening is real and accelerating
Fuel volatility is distorting rate signals
Market Update.
If you thought the logistics market was finally settling into a predictable “new normal,” the last four weeks have served as a massive reality check. From regulatory shifts to fuel volatility, the industry is currently navigating a stretch that some experts are calling more tumultuous than in the early days of the pandemic.
In our latest podcast episode, Andrew Elsener, Co-founder of Spot, sat down with two of Spot’s Senior National Account Directors, Theo Mascari and Alex Buening to break down the rapid shifts in the March marketplace. Here are the key takeaways for shippers and carriers trying to weather the storm.
The Non-Domiciled CDL Regulation Factor
One of the most significant—and perhaps underestimated—drivers of this current capacity crunch is the enforcement of non-domiciled CDL regulations.
The biggest near-term shift in the freight market is a forced reduction in driver supply. Under the FMCSA’s Final Rule on non-domiciled CDLs, the current population of roughly 200,000 holders is expected to shrink sharply over time, with only about 6,000 new non-domiciled CDLs issued annually going forward. FMCSA estimates 194,000 current holders will lose renewal eligibility, while broader estimates put total market removals between 214,000 and 437,000 drivers.
“We’re seeing carriers getting notices via email saying they are either immediately shut down or ineligible for renewal,” Mascari noted. “These drivers typically handled the ‘less attractive’ freight—long-haul, multi-stop, and Midwest-to-Northeast lanes. As they leave, that freight is flooding the spot market.”
The “All-In” Fuel Crisis
Carriers are facing that tightening backdrop while also absorbing rapidly rising fuel costs. Diesel has climbed to about $5.37 per gallon, nearly $1 per gallon higher than before the recent oil shock, and some fleets report fuel costs rising 25% since late February.
For carriers, that translates into meaningful budget pressure:
- Monthly fuel spend rising from roughly $12K–$13K to about $15K
- An annual impact of roughly $100,000
- Fuel surcharge increases of about 10% in some cases
Even with surcharge adjustments, carriers are struggling to fully offset the increase, which is tightening margins and putting pressure on freight pricing. Fuel remains especially volatile because oil market disruptions can still push carrier costs higher quickly, even with strategic reserve releases of 172M barrels in the U.S. and 400M barrels globally.
Regional Hotspots: California in the Crosshairs
- While the Midwest and Northeast were recently hampered by weather, California is the new center of the capacity struggle.
- The transition from Yuma to Salinas produce seasons, coupled with the highest diesel spikes in the country and new EPA regulations (specifically the EPA 2027 standards), has created a “perfect storm.” Carriers are “pre-loading” or buying Class 8 trucks now to get ahead of the 2027 maintenance and cost increases, but this isn’t necessarily adding new capacity to the road—it’s just replenishing old iron before it gets too expensive.
Market Update.
The freight market is tightening, but not evenly. March brings a mix of modest demand recovery, continued capacity contraction, and growing pressure on rates, with regional and modal shifts driving new pockets of volatility. From truckload to LTL, this month’s update breaks down where the market is moving, what’s driving change, and how to stay ahead as conditions continue to evolve.
Demand Level & Outlook
Where Demand Stands Today
According to trucking ton-mile data, freight demand reached a seasonally adjusted low point in Q2 2024 and has been slowly improving since.
That modest demand recovery, combined with significant carrier exits throughout 2024 and early 2025, helps explain why capacity has tightened even though freight volumes remain historically soft.
To put growth into perspective:
- Q3 2025 demand was up just 0.8% year-over-year
- Compare that to prior bull markets:
- Q3 2017: ↑ 2.4%
- Q4 2017: ↑ 3.7%
Those past cycles saw rapid demand expansion for 18 months or more. There is currently no evidence of that kind of acceleration heading into 2026.
Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs
Capacity & Costs: Tight, But Under Strain
Transportation capacity tightened sharply at year-end. The Logistics Managers’ Index shows capacity fell to a four-year low in December:
- Transportation Capacity Index: 36.9
- Lowest since October 2021
- First contraction since March 2022, when the freight recession began
At the same time:
- Transportation utilization rose to 58.2
- Transportation pricing increased to 66.7, the highest since January 2025
- Pricing sat nearly 30 points above capacity, signaling a tight market on paper
Spot & Contract Market Trends
Contract Rates: Stable, For Now
Contract pricing has been far less reactive than spot markets. Retailers and shippers entered peak season with:
- Inventory plans are set months in advance
- Elevated inventory-to-sales ratios
- A cautious approach to restocking
Post-holiday inventory drawdowns are normal seasonal behavior, not a signal of a Q1 demand surge. With sales largely flat on a price-adjusted basis, there is little incentive for shippers to lock in higher contract rates early in 2026.
Market Update.
At Spot, we understand the vital role that up-to-date information plays in navigating the dynamic logistics market. Each month, we bring you a comprehensive logistics market update. We dive into the latest trends, challenges, and innovations shaping the logistics sector. Join us as we empower you with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions in this fast-paced industry. Market Update.
Canadian Tariffs Surge: A Hidden Shock
While China has dominated the headlines, Canadian imports are bearing the brunt of new tariffs under the current administration:
•Average monthly tariffs in 2024: $34M
•March & April 2025 tariffs: $660M and $675M, a 19.5x increase
•June is expected to surge again due to 50% tariffs on steel/metal
Top affected categories
•Unwrought aluminum: $123.7M
•Auto parts: $67.5M
•Finished vehicles: $52.2M
Operating Costs: Inflation Without Pricing Power
- Stagflation Strains Margins: Carriers face the worst of both worlds, flat volumes and rates paired with rising costs. This stagflationary environment has forced many into cost-deferral decisions that may backfire long term (e.g., delayed maintenance, equipment replacement).
- Insurance a Top Pressure Point: Premiums are skyrocketing due to increased litigation and nuclear verdicts (claims >$10M). Carriers are also contending with cargo theft risks, including sophisticated scams like identity manipulation and double brokering.
Supply & Capacity: A Market in Contraction
- Carrier Exits Hit New High: In April 2025, 7,474 trucking companies exited the market, a 12-month peak and a 26% increase from March. Weekly revocation rates remain elevated, with more than 1,500 carriers losing authority each week.
- New Entrants Defy the Trend: Despite exits, new carrier authorities rose 48% month over month in April. Seasonal optimism and the lure of an eventual rate rebound keep new players entering the market, though many may be underestimating the financial headwinds.
Market Update.
At Spot, we understand the vital role that up-to-date information plays in navigating the dynamic logistics market. Each month, we bring you a comprehensive logistics market update. We dive into the latest trends, challenges, and innovations shaping the logistics sector. Join us as we empower you with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions in this fast-paced industry. Market Update.
Demand Level & Outlook
Where Demand Stands Today
According to trucking ton-mile data, freight demand reached a seasonally adjusted low point in Q2 2024 and has been slowly improving since.
That modest demand recovery, combined with significant carrier exits throughout 2024 and early 2025, helps explain why capacity has tightened even though freight volumes remain historically soft.
To put growth into perspective:
- Q3 2025 demand was up just 0.8% year-over-year
- Compare that to prior bull markets:
- Q3 2017: ↑ 2.4%
- Q4 2017: ↑ 3.7%
Those past cycles saw rapid demand expansion for 18 months or more. There is currently no evidence of that kind of acceleration heading into 2026.
Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs
Capacity & Costs: Tight, But Under Strain
Transportation capacity tightened sharply at year-end. The Logistics Managers’ Index shows capacity fell to a four-year low in December:
- Transportation Capacity Index: 36.9
- Lowest since October 2021
- First contraction since March 2022, when the freight recession began
At the same time:
- Transportation utilization rose to 58.2
- Transportation pricing increased to 66.7, the highest since January 2025
- Pricing sat nearly 30 points above capacity, signaling a tight market on paper
Spot & Contract Market Trends
Contract Rates: Stable, For Now
Contract pricing has been far less reactive than spot markets. Retailers and shippers entered peak season with:
- Inventory plans are set months in advance
- Elevated inventory-to-sales ratios
- A cautious approach to restocking
Post-holiday inventory drawdowns are normal seasonal behavior, not a signal of a Q1 demand surge. With sales largely flat on a price-adjusted basis, there is little incentive for shippers to lock in higher contract rates early in 2026.
Market Update.
Spot has been recognized by FourKites®, a leader in AI-driven supply chain transformation, on its Premier Carrier List for the first half of 2025, identifying carriers and brokers that have shown outstanding tracking performance across all modes of transport globally.
The Premier Carrier List spotlights carriers and brokers who consistently provide exceptional visibility and service quality to their customers. These carriers reduce manual check calls, minimize dwell time, streamline carrier-shipper workflows, and help shippers respond quickly to operational changes and disruptions.
As a leader in AI-driven supply chain transformation, FourKites pioneered the Intelligent Control Tower™ powered by the world’s largest real-time visibility network. Their platform creates comprehensive digital twins of your supply chain with AI-powered digital workers to automate resolution, improve collaboration, and drive outcomes across all stakeholders.
View The Full List >> https://www.fourkites.com/premier-carriers/
How Spot & Red Technologies Build Practical, Real-World AI Solutions That Actually Work
Artificial intelligence isn’t new to logistics, but honest conversations about what actually works are. For years, Spot’s wholly-owned subsidiary and technology arm, Red Technologies, has been building and deploying AI in ways that reflect the real-world pace, pressure, and complexity of freight. The work wasn’t linear; it was iterative and deeply collaborative.
What follows is a behind-the-scenes look at how the engineers, data scientists, and operations teams of Red Technologies have adopted AI by doing what logistics has always required: solving the problem directly in front of them, learning from the people closest to the work, and scaling only when the results earn it.
This whitepaper blends two perspectives rarely found in a single narrative:
- The data side: where AI is fueled, shaped, and validated
- The development side: where ideas become actual systems inside Spot’s platform
Together, the two perspectives reveal how the Red Technologies team approaches AI with clarity, humility, and a firm focus on operational value.