The freight market continues to send mixed signals. AI and data center construction are driving demand while manufacturing remains in expansion territory. At the same time, carrier capacity continues to contract, operating costs are rising, and diesel has reached a record high.
Spot rates have eased from recent highs, but remain well above last year. Here’s a look at the forces shaping the market, and what to watch next.
Cold calling in a hyper-competitive market isn’t about running through a rigid script—it’s about pattern interrupts, building rapport, and mastering sales conversations under pressure.
In a recent podcast episode, Andrew Elsener, Co-Founder of Spot, sat down with Dr. Stefanie Boyer, a Professor at Bryant University and Co-Founder of RNMKRS, to unpack modern sales strategies and AI-driven training.
The freight market is sending a clear signal: shippers are paying more to move less, while available capacity continues to contract. Manufacturing demand remains uneven, intermodal is taking share from long-haul truckload, and rising operating costs are putting additional pressure on carriers.
At the same time, regulatory enforcement is removing capacity from the market, while diesel prices have moved back above $5 per gallon.
Here’s what matters now.
In the latest episode of More Than a Broker, Spot Co-Founder, Andrew Elsener, sits down with two of Spot’s industry veterans and Senior National Account Directors, Theo Mascari and Alex Buening, to break down today’s unpredictable freight environment.
Market Update.
In logistics, data is abundant but converting it into actionable foresight is where the real challenge lies. In this episode of More Than a Broker, Spot Co-Founder, Andrew Elsner, spoke with Jonathan Starks, CEO of FTR Transportation Intelligence, to make sense of current market cycles, regulatory headwinds, and what lies ahead for freight capacity.
Here are the key takeaways from their conversation.
The freight market continues its shift toward carrier favorability as shrinking capacity (not surging freight volumes) drives tighter conditions across North America. AI infrastructure investments are fueling growth in specialized freight, while higher operating costs and fewer available trucks are pushing spot rates to their highest levels in years.
Here’s what shippers should be watching heading into the second half of 2026.
For decades, the logistics industry operated on a relatively straightforward legal assumption: if a freight broker checked that a motor carrier was authorized to haul by the federal government, they had done their due diligence.
But following the Supreme Court’s Montgomery decision, that “Wild West” era of simple rate confirmations and hands-off onboarding is over.
In a recent episode of the More Than a Broker podcast, Spot Co-Founder, Andrew Elsener, sat down with transportation attorney, Nathaniel Saylor, to discuss the Montgomery decision, and how to survive the “coulda, woulda, shoulda” of modern negligent selection lawsuits.
Market Update.
The freight market is becoming increasingly bifurcated. Consumer demand is showing signs of fatigue under the weight of persistent inflation and high borrowing costs, while industrial freight tied to AI infrastructure, power generation, and semiconductor investment continues to accelerate. Meanwhile, regulatory enforcement, rising operating costs, and tightening capacity are pushing pricing power back toward carriers.
Here’s what matters now.
There are many issues impacting the trucking landscape that it’s hard to keep up.
In a recent episode of the More Than a Broker podcast, host Andrew Elsener sat down with Jason Miller, a leading supply chain professor and logistics economist to discuss those issues.
What ensued wasn’t just a standard market update; it was a masterclass in the invisible mechanics fracturing today’s supply chains.
If you haven’t listened to the full episode, here is a high-level look at who Jason Miller is, and the critical market realities you are likely misjudging right now, and why listening to the full discussion is non-negotiable for anyone defending a transportation budget to the C-suite.
Market Update.
The freight market continues to tighten as rising fuel costs, expanded broker liability, and constrained truck capacity reshape transportation networks heading into summer.
A recent Supreme Court ruling has increased liability exposure for freight brokers, which will drive stricter carrier vetting and higher insurance costs across the industry. At the same time, diesel prices have surged near 2022 record highs due to ongoing geopolitical instability, adding inflationary pressure throughout the supply chain.
Despite economic uncertainty, freight demand remains steady across manufacturing, produce, and infrastructure sectors, pushing spot rates higher and narrowing the gap between contract and spot pricing.
Demand Level & Outlook
Demand remains strong despite rising costs
Freight demand continues to hold steady as U.S. manufacturing expands for a fourth consecutive month and supply chains remain tight. Semiconductor pricing, factory input costs, and transportation expenses all increased sharply in April, signaling continued pressure across the market.
The largest development impacting transportation this month is the Supreme Court’s unanimous ruling in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, which expands broker liability for carrier selection. The decision is expected to increase carrier vetting standards, insurance costs, and operational scrutiny throughout the freight market.
Meanwhile, diesel prices climbed to $5.64 nationally in mid-May (nearly matching 2022 peak levels) further increasing transportation costs across all modes.
Key Demand Indicators
Freight spend is projected to rise 20–25% year-over-year
Trucking rates paid by shippers increased 15.3% year-over-year
Diesel prices rose 62% year-over-year
Factory input costs reached their highest level since 2022
Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs
Capacity tightening is accelerating
Freight pricing continues to rise while available truck capacity remains historically tight. Although carriers added trucking jobs and increased truck orders in April, demand is still outpacing supply across dry van, reefer, and flatbed markets.
Fuel remains the biggest operational challenge for carriers. Rising diesel costs pushed carrier operating conditions into negative territory earlier this spring, and transportation pricing historically follows fuel increases within weeks.
Mode Highlights
Dry Van
Capacity remains tighter than at any point in the last several years.
Reefer
Produce season and Roadcheck disruptions pushed reefer demand sharply higher, driving record weekly rate increases.
Flatbed
Infrastructure and AI-related construction demand continue fueling strong flatbed activity and tightening available capacity.
Key Supply Indicators
Flatbed load-to-truck ratios surged during Roadcheck week
Freight pricing reached record highs while truck capacity declined
Heavy-truck orders increased significantly year-over-year
Logistics costs climbed to their highest level since April 2022
Spot & Contract Market Trends
Spot rates continue to outpace contracts
Spot-market pricing accelerated in May as fuel costs, tighter capacity, and increased compliance pressures pushed transportation costs higher. The spot-to-contract pricing gap that benefited shippers throughout 2023 continues to narrow quickly.
Additional broker liability costs are expected to impact spot pricing first, while contract markets are also experiencing upward pressure as primary carriers reject freight and shift loads into higher-cost backup capacity.
Current Linehaul Rates
- Dry Van: $2.22 per mile
- Reefer: $2.68 per mile
- Flatbed: $2.79 per mile
Market Rate Trends
- Spot rates are running 35–40% above last year
- Contract rates are averaging roughly 10% above last year
- Dry van rates sit 30% above the five-year average
- Flatbed rates increased 20% over the past nine weeks
Shippers should prepare for continued rate volatility throughout the summer as fuel prices, seasonal demand, and tightening capacity continue pressuring the market.als
Market Update.