July 24, 2025
At Spot, we understand the vital role that up-to-date information plays in navigating the dynamic logistics market. Each month, we bring you a comprehensive logistics market update. We dive into the latest trends, challenges, and innovations shaping the logistics sector. Join us as we empower you with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions in this fast-paced industry.
A Front-Loaded Year with Fading Momentum
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- Q1 2025 truckload volumes were buoyed by a 19% quarter-over-quarter spike in freight-moving imports, as shippers rushed to bring in goods ahead of anticipated tariffs.
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- That activity has since cooled: dry van volumes are forecast to fall 0.9% YoY in 2025, and total truckload volume is expected to remain flat for the year.
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- While manufacturing activity was strong early in the year, it is now slowing, reducing its contribution to freight demand. The goods transport sector, excluding services, is expected to grow by only 2.5% in 2025, and most of that growth is already behind us.
Tariffs Are the Central Disruptor
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- U.S. effective average tariff rate has risen to 20.6% pre-substitution, the highest level since 1910. After substitutions in sourcing/import behavior, the effective rate remains 19.7%, still the highest since 1933.
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- Tariffs implemented so far in 2025 are forecast to reduce U.S. real GDP growth by -0.9 percentage points this year and shrink the long-run size of the U.S. economy by 0.5%, or $135 billion annually.
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- The average U.S. household will lose $2,800 in purchasing power in 2025 due to higher consumer prices stemming from tariffs.
Shrinking Labor Pool and Excess Equipment
The market continues to struggle with a capacity overhang, despite signs of structural tightening:
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- Truck capacity declined by 2.2%
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- Carrier attrition is trending at a 1.7% annual rate
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- Class 8 truck orders dropped 45% year-over-year, suggesting fewer equipment investments ahead
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- Drivers per truck fell to 0.93, and non-driver staff levels declined 6.8%
Cost Shocks Around the Corner
Although not an immediate operational cost, looming tariff changes threaten to further disrupt carrier economics:
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- A 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports could suppress new truck sales by 17% in 2025.
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- Steel tariffs have pushed cold-rolled steel prices up 9.4%, increasing the cost of truck manufacturing and repairs.
These upstream effects will likely be passed downstream, contributing to long-term operating cost inflation.