The freight market continues to tighten as rising fuel costs, expanded broker liability, and constrained truck capacity reshape transportation networks heading into summer.
A recent Supreme Court ruling has increased liability exposure for freight brokers, which will drive stricter carrier vetting and higher insurance costs across the industry. At the same time, diesel prices have surged near 2022 record highs due to ongoing geopolitical instability, adding inflationary pressure throughout the supply chain.
Despite economic uncertainty, freight demand remains steady across manufacturing, produce, and infrastructure sectors, pushing spot rates higher and narrowing the gap between contract and spot pricing.
Demand Level & Outlook
Demand remains strong despite rising costs
Freight demand continues to hold steady as U.S. manufacturing expands for a fourth consecutive month and supply chains remain tight. Semiconductor pricing, factory input costs, and transportation expenses all increased sharply in April, signaling continued pressure across the market.
The largest development impacting transportation this month is the Supreme Court’s unanimous ruling in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, which expands broker liability for carrier selection. The decision is expected to increase carrier vetting standards, insurance costs, and operational scrutiny throughout the freight market.
Meanwhile, diesel prices climbed to $5.64 nationally in mid-May (nearly matching 2022 peak levels) further increasing transportation costs across all modes.
Key Demand Indicators
- Trucking rates paid by shippers increased 15.3% year-over-year
- Diesel prices rose 62% year-over-year
- Factory input costs reached their highest level since 2022
- Freight spend is projected to rise 20–25% year-over-year
Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs
Capacity tightening is accelerating
Freight pricing continues to rise while available truck capacity remains historically tight. Although carriers added trucking jobs and increased truck orders in April, demand is still outpacing supply across dry van, reefer, and flatbed markets.
Fuel remains the biggest operational challenge for carriers. Rising diesel costs pushed carrier operating conditions into negative territory earlier this spring, and transportation pricing historically follows fuel increases within weeks.
Mode Highlights
Dry Van
Capacity remains tighter than at any point in the last several years.
Reefer
Produce season and Roadcheck disruptions pushed reefer demand sharply higher, driving record weekly rate increases.
Flatbed
Infrastructure and AI-related construction demand continue fueling strong flatbed activity and tightening available capacity.
Key Supply Indicators
- Freight pricing reached record highs while truck capacity declined
- Heavy-truck orders increased significantly year-over-year
- Logistics costs climbed to their highest level since April 2022
- Flatbed load-to-truck ratios surged during Roadcheck week
Spot & Contract Market Trends
Spot rates continue to outpace contracts
Spot-market pricing accelerated in May as fuel costs, tighter capacity, and increased compliance pressures pushed transportation costs higher. The spot-to-contract pricing gap that benefited shippers throughout 2023 continues to narrow quickly.
Additional broker liability costs are expected to impact spot pricing first, while contract markets are also experiencing upward pressure as primary carriers reject freight and shift loads into higher-cost backup capacity.
Current Linehaul Rates
- Dry Van: $2.22 per mile
- Reefer: $2.68 per mile
- Flatbed: $2.79 per mile
Market Rate Trends
- Spot rates are running 35–40% above last year
- Contract rates are averaging roughly 10% above last year
- Dry van rates sit 30% above the five-year average
- Flatbed rates increased 20% over the past nine weeks
Shippers should prepare for continued rate volatility throughout the summer as fuel prices, seasonal demand, and tightening capacity continue pressuring the market.