Logistics Market Update: October 2025

At Spot, we understand the vital role that up-to-date information plays in navigating the dynamic logistics market. Each month, we bring you a comprehensive logistics market update. We dive into the latest trends, challenges, and innovations shaping the logistics sector. Join us as we empower you with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions in this fast-paced industry.

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Demand Level & Outlook 

Industrial & Manufacturing Demand 

• • What’s happening: Industrial production for equipment (like machinery and electrical tools) has fallen 2.2% since April. New manufacturing orders have moved into contraction.

• • Why it matters: Reduced production means fewer long-haul shipments of machinery and industrial freight.

• • Tariffs on imported goods and machinery from China are making production more expensive, discouraging new orders.

• • Impact: Lower freight volumes from manufacturing and industrial sectors, especially for high-value, long-distance loads.

Tariffs & Trade Disruption 

• • What’s happening: 

    • • Goods from China carry a 10% tariff, with an additional 34% delayed until November 10.
    • • Tariffs on lumber, furniture, and cabinetry are already active.
    • • Truck parts may face 25–100% tariffs.
    • • The overall U.S. tariff rate could reach 20% by the end of the year.

• • Why it matters: Importers front-loaded shipments earlier in the year to avoid tariffs, leaving later volumes lower.

• • Impact: Softer import-driven freight in the second half of the year, especially at ports and intermodal hubs. Higher costs ripple through domestic supply chains.

Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs 

Carrier Supply & Market Exits 

• • What’s happening: More trucking companies exited than entered the market in Q3. Trucking employment is down 3.1% from last year.

• • Why it matters: Small carriers are struggling to absorb higher costs and are leaving the market, reducing total capacity.

• • Impact: Tightening capacity could stabilize or slightly increase rates even without stronger demand.

Regulations & Labor 

• • What’s happening: 

    • • A new FMCSA rule may remove up to 194,000 non-domiciled CDL drivers.
    • • Immigration enforcement is leading some drivers to exit the industry.
    • • Visa rule changes and the drug and alcohol clearinghouse continue to reduce the driver pool.

• • Why it matters: Fewer available drivers limit capacity, especially in southern and border regions. 

    • • Impact: Tighter capacity raises spot rates in affected regions.

Spot & Contract Market Trends 

• • Overall: The market remains supply-driven, not demand-driven. Freight volumes are flat, but rates are rising slightly due to tightening capacity.

• • Dry Van: $1.70 per mile nationally, steady but firming in the Midwest and southern border regions.

• • Reefer: $2.07 per mile, up sharply in Texas border markets due to immigration enforcement.

• • Flatbed: $2.07 per mile, stable but stronger in the Southeast.

• • Contract Rates: Mostly flat, with shippers still holding leverage in negotiations.

• • Impact: Spot rates are rising in certain lanes because of capacity constraints rather than increased demand.