October sees a complicated market with soft broad domestic volume offset by concentrated industrial demand from data centers and lingering capacity constraints. At the same time, tender rejections remain elevated; diesel costs stay high, and contract rates continue their upward momentum.
Spot rates remain well above last year across equipment types. Here’s a look at the forces shaping the market and what to watch next.
Demand Level & Outlook
Load-board activity remains above 2025 levels, while manufacturing and LTL growth are concentrated in specific segments.
- Domestic volume remains soft: August shipments fell 28% year over year in the U.S. Bank/DAT sample, underscoring the lack of a broad-based truckload recovery.
- Manufacturing job gains are narrow: September manufacturing jobs rose by 9,000, led by machinery and plastics/rubber, though employment remained 21,000 below January 2025.
- Data centers support industrial loads: Real data center construction spending surged 73% year over year in August to 6.2 times its 2022 level, bolstering select wholesale and manufacturing lanes.
- Regional LTL is a bright spot: Estes reported Q3 next-day regional shipments up 13% year over year compared to 2.5% for the rest of its network.
- Inventories remain upstream: The LMI inventory index hit 58.9 in September, growing faster upstream (61.4 for manufacturers/wholesalers) than at retail (53.8).
- Spot load posts are up: Early October equipment load posts increased year over year for dry vans (+23.2%), reefers (+20.1%), and flatbeds (+7.1%).
Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs
Capacity remains constrained even after the quarter-end volume pullback, limited by high diesel costs and barriers to fleet expansion.
- Rejections signal tight capacity: The national tender rejection rate reached 13.9%, up from under 6% a year earlier.
- Load-to-truck ratios remain high: Ratios eased post-quarter-end, but reefer ratios stayed 56.5% above last year, with early October DAT board levels at 10.50 for dry van and 16.75 for reefer.
- Ten months of capacity contraction: The LMI transportation capacity index fell to 34.4 in September, with a 12-month outlook of 37.9. September utilization hit 66.1 and price pressure reached 92.7.
- Diesel costs remain elevated: On-highway diesel averaged $6.20 per gallon on October 5, down from a recent high above $6.50.
- Capacity rebuilds slowly: Higher financing costs, driver qualification enforcement, and weak historical margins continue to limit fleet growth.
- Posted truck availability is down: DAT truck postings dropped over 20% year over year in early October, while FTR reported 21,300 preliminary Class 8 orders in September.
Spot & Contract Market Trends
Spot linehaul remains above normal seasonal levels, while contract price increases continue working through the market.
Early October spot linehaul:
DAT averages excluding fuel outpace seasonal norms:
- Van at $2.26/mi (+35.1% YoY)
- Reefer at $2.75/mi (+32.7% YoY)
- Flatbed at $2.65/mi (+28.8% YoY)
Regional price differences:
Notable year-over-year rate jumps include:
- Ohio River van market ($2.61/mi, +$0.71 YoY)
- Upper Midwest reefer ($3.51/mi, +$0.98 YoY)
- Contract rates keep rising: Early October national contract truckload linehaul reached $2.72/mi (+18% YoY), with DAT projecting a 19% full-year increase for dry van contract rates in 2026.
- Unusual contract momentum: Calendar-year contract gains match the historic spikes seen only in 2020 and 2021.
- 2027 linehaul cost scenarios: TRAFFIX projects a central scenario of +5–8%, ranging from +2–5% under weaker demand to +8–12% or more under severe constraints.
Key takeaway
Capacity restrictions and persistent contract momentum are keeping rates elevated despite soft broad freight volumes, pointing to continued pricing pressure ahead.