Carrier Vetting, Capacity Myths, and Global Conflict with Jason Miller

There are many issues impacting the trucking landscape that it’s hard to keep up.

In a recent episode of the More Than a Broker podcast, host Andrew Elsener sat down with Jason Miller, a leading supply chain professor and logistics economist to discuss those issues.

What ensued wasn’t just a standard market update; it was a masterclass in the invisible mechanics fracturing today’s supply chains.

If you haven’t listened to the full episode, here is a high-level look at who Jason Miller is, and the critical market realities you are likely misjudging right now, and why listening to the full discussion is non-negotiable for anyone defending a transportation budget to the C-suite.

Listen here and read more below.

The Capacity Illusion

The theory goes that 96% of registered carriers are small fleets of 20 trucks or less, assuming a massive, fragmented safety net of capacity exists. But, as it turns out, it’s not so simple.

Miller explains that the top 50 over-the-road firms actually control a staggering 38% to 40% of true market capacity. Today, we have more individual trucking firms but less actual rubber on the road, forcing modern freight volumes onto a 2012 capacity baseline.

Time to up Your Carrier Vetting

If your compliance team is still only using FMCSA percentile scores to vet carriers, Miller’s directive is simple: Stop immediately. These metrics were never built for shipper or broker screening, and relying on them is exposing you to massive liability or unnecessarily choking your asset pool.

The episode dives deep into the post-Montgomery landscape, outlining the exact absolute metrics, specifically under the Unsafe Driving and Hours of Service tabs that accurately predict catastrophic accidents. You’ll also learn why unweighted “Out-of-Service” rates are causing shippers to blackball perfectly safe carriers over minor, random maintenance aberrations.

Three Ingredients Impacting the Rest of 2026

Miller maps out the three macroeconomic trajectories for the back half of the year, driven by a volatile mix of:

• The possibility of a massive federal-scale stimulus from the AI and data center infrastructure boom.
• Delilah’s Law, which could bottleneck regional DMVs and while intended to keep the roads safe, cause headaches and pull safe, domestic drivers off the road over paperwork backlogs.
• While we hope for a resolution, the high-stakes energy chokepoints in the Middle East that could comfortably keep line haul rates elevated or spike diesel toward $7/gallon, is a huge factor in the back half of 2026.

Jason Miller

Jason Miller (PhD The Ohio State University) is the Eli Broad Endowed Professor of Supply Chain Management and served for three years as interim chairperson for the Department of Supply Chain Management at Michigan State University’s Eli Broad College of Business. His primary research stream examines issues in the for-hire truck transportation industry including safety, productivity, pricing dynamics, driver turnover, and employment. He also conducts macroeconomic research in the manufacturing, wholesale trade, and retail trade sectors, with a focus on inventories, shortages, productivity, and new order dynamics.

In addition to academic research, Miller provides commentary via LinkedIn on various issues that affect supply chain practitioners such as inventory levels, pricing dynamics, manufacturing output, and transportation activity. He regularly speaks at industry webinars regarding these topics. He is frequently quoted by national general media outlets including The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, NBC News, The Washington Post, CBS News, ABC News, Reuters, CNBC, Forbes, Business Insider, NPR, and NPR Marketplace as well as specialized industry news outlets including Journal of Commerce, FreightWaves, Supply Chain Dive, and Trains, amongst others.