In logistics, data is abundant but converting it into actionable foresight is where the real challenge lies. In this episode of More Than a Broker, Spot Co-Founder, Andrew Elsener, spoke with Jonathan Starks, CEO of FTR Transportation Intelligence, to make sense of current market cycles, regulatory headwinds, and what lies ahead for freight capacity.
Here are the key takeaways from their conversation.
No Single Indicator Tells the Whole Story
Trucking is an aggregation of hundreds of micro-markets, meaning single metrics like ATA tonnage or the Cass Freight Index only offer partial views. FTR uses a macro-economic model that measures raw load creation (underlying demand) first, before layering capacity and driver productivity data.
Truck Utilization is Running Tight
The market is currently hovering around 98% to 99% active truck utilization, leaving a slim 1% to 2% buffer of excess capacity. While this level of tightness traditionally triggers rapid fleet expansion, several structural factors are slowing down the typical recovery cycle.
Capacity Bottlenecks
Unlike past market recoveries, bringing capacity back into the market is facing unique friction:
- Heightened Enforcement & Vetting: Strict safety and vetting requirements following the Montgomery ruling, combined with state-level CDL enforcement and proposed federal legislation like Delilah’s Law, make it harder for small, non-rated carriers to operate in the spot market.
- Shift vs. Growth: Larger fleets recruiting drivers are primarily pulling existing operators out of the spot market rather than bringing net-new drivers into the industry.
- Rising Capital Costs: Trailer prices up 20%–30% over five years, impending 2027 emissions mandates, and driver wage pressures make fleets much more hesitant to aggressively order new equipment.
Margin Gains via the “First and Final Mile”
With fixed costs like fuel, insurance, and equipment remaining high, carriers have limited room to cut overhead. FTR’s analysis shows that the highest productivity gains come from optimizing the first and final mile, reducing dock delays, detention, and low-speed congestion. These efforts can yield immediate fuel savings and recover valuable driving time.
About Jonathan Starks
Starks is the CEO of FTR. He has spent his entire career in the freight transportation sector having joined FTR in 2001.
Jon’s expertise includes freight modeling, modal analysis, fleet characteristics, and equipment demand. He is directly responsible for producing FTR’s Freight-cast transportation model, producing more than 13 million datapoints and 85,000 forecasted items each and every month.