At Spot, we understand the vital role that up-to-date information plays in navigating the dynamic logistics market. Each month, we bring you a comprehensive logistics market update. We dive into the latest trends, challenges, and innovations shaping the logistics sector. Join us as we empower you with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions in this fast-paced industry. Market Update.
Demand Level & Outlook
Freight Demand: Weak Overall, but Not Uniform
Broad truckload demand remains soft
- The Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) is ↓ 11% year over year
- This index captures a wider mix of industrial and capital-goods freight
Consumer-oriented freight is far more resilient:
- The Truckload Volume Index (STVI), which is more heavily weighted toward food, beverage, CPG, and shorter-haul freight, is ↓ only 3% year over year
- This better reflects the freight mix experienced by large contract-focused carriers
Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs
Regulatory Enforcement Emerges as a Meaningful Supply-Side Force
- English-language proficiency enforcement and non-domiciled CDL scrutiny could remove up to 5% of industry capacity over time
- Analysts agree these measures create a rising floor under rates, but are unlikely to trigger an immediate capacity shock on their own
FTR estimates English-language enforcement may remove roughly 25,000 drivers in the first year, which is notable but not enough to independently tighten the market.
Insurance and Financing: The Wild Cards
- Insurance premiums are expected to rise meaningfully in 2026
- Financing remains tight, limiting the ability of marginal carriers to refresh equipment
- These pressures could trigger a delayed but sharper wave of capacity loss if rates do not improve
Spot & Contract Market Trends
Spot Rates Are Sending Clear Signals
Truckload spot rates excluding fuel increased 8% over a two-week period from November 19 to December 4, a sharper move than seen in the same seasonal window over the past two years. These sudden increases, rather than sustained climbs, have become a defining feature of this market cycle.
Market Update.
At Spot, we understand the vital role that up-to-date information plays in navigating the dynamic logistics market. Each month, we bring you a comprehensive logistics market update. We dive into the latest trends, challenges, and innovations shaping the logistics sector. Join us as we empower you with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions in this fast-paced industry. Market Update.
Labor Market
- BLS will revise March 2025 employment down by 911k jobs (manufacturing ↓95k, wholesale trade ↓110k, professional/business services ↓158k).
- Jobless claims are higher than 2023–2024 but still better than 2014–2016.
Tariff Pressures by Country
- India: 25% emergency tariff on top of 25% existing , 87% of India’s exports to the U.S. are impacted tariffs.
- Brazil: 40% emergency tariff on top of 10% base.
- South Africa: Reciprocal tariffs 31%, metals/steel already facing 50%.
- Canada: 35% reciprocal tariffs, especially autos, steel, and inputs.
Tariff-Driven Cost Pressures
- Steel & aluminum tariffs increase van trailer prices ↑ 16–28%.
- Other heavy-duty trailers (flatbeds, dumps) ↑ 17–30%.
- Class 8 trucks & tractors ↑ 15–24%.
- Raw material costs overall ↑ 9–12%.
- Additional non-USMCA and reciprocal tariffs add 1–6% across segments.
- Rising material costs from tariffs are pushing up the price of both trucks and trailers. Fleets are cautious, waiting for clarity before committing to new purchases.
Current Market Signals
Regionally, produce and holiday shipping are creating localized tightness, but it isn’t enough to offset the broader softening.
Seasonal forces are visible. Reefer load-to-truck ratios are elevated (9.26 loads per truck) and flatbed volumes spiked (22.02 loads per truck) with construction, yet both sectors still saw rates fall by $0.03/mile. This shows how trend pressure is overpowering seasonal lifts.
Market Update.