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At Spot, we understand the vital role that up-to-date information plays in navigating the dynamic logistics market. Each month, we bring you a comprehensive logistics market update. We dive into the latest trends, challenges, and innovations shaping the logistics sector. Join us as we empower you with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions in this fast-paced industry. Market Update.

Demand Level & Outlook

Freight Demand: Weak Overall, but Not Uniform

Broad truckload demand remains soft

The Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) is ↓ 11% year over year
This index captures a wider mix of industrial and capital-goods freight

Consumer-oriented freight is far more resilient:

The Truckload Volume Index (STVI), which is more heavily weighted toward food, beverage, CPG, and shorter-haul freight, is ↓ only 3% year over year
This better reflects the freight mix experienced by large contract-focused carriers

Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs

Regulatory Enforcement Emerges as a Meaningful Supply-Side Force

English-language proficiency enforcement and non-domiciled CDL scrutiny could remove up to 5% of industry capacity over time
Analysts agree these measures create a rising floor under rates, but are unlikely to trigger an immediate capacity shock on their own

FTR estimates English-language enforcement may remove roughly 25,000 drivers in the first year, which is notable but not enough to independently tighten the market.

Insurance and Financing: The Wild Cards

Insurance premiums are expected to rise meaningfully in 2026
Financing remains tight, limiting the ability of marginal carriers to refresh equipment
These pressures could trigger a delayed but sharper wave of capacity loss if rates do not improve

Spot & Contract Market Trends

Spot Rates Are Sending Clear Signals

Truckload spot rates excluding fuel increased 8% over a two-week period from November 19 to December 4, a sharper move than seen in the same seasonal window over the past two years. These sudden increases, rather than sustained climbs, have become a defining feature of this market cycle.

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Demand Level & Outlook

Retail & Manufacturing Impacts

Importers cite persistent geopolitical and regulatory volatility, leading to:

Cautious inventory positions
Delayed orders
Tariff-related cost uncertainty

Manufacturers tied to Chinese imports are particularly strained, with shipments to the U.S. falling over 25% YoY.

Holiday Season 2025 Outlook

Retailers remain well-stocked, preventing shortages, but that is a sign of reduced ordering, not healthy demand and port trackers anticipate the slowest December since March 2023.

Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs

Massive Productivity Losses Shrink Effective Capacity

Lost driver time is effectively lost supply:

135.9 million hours lost annually due to detention.
1.2 billion hours lost annually due to congestion.

These productivity losses convert directly into higher operating costs and reduce the effective capacity available in the network.

Tariffs Are Increasing Equipment Costs

New heavy-duty truck tariffs took effect in November. Although less severe than expected, these new policies will increase tractor and parts costs, incentivize reshoring U.S. production, and delay OEM capacity expansions.

Spot & Contract Market Trends

Contract Rates: Stable but Unsustainably Low

Contract rates have been essentially flat since mid-2024, rising only 1% over the last 15 months. Despite this stability, they now sit just 16% above 2019 levels, even though carrier operating costs have increased roughly 33% in that same period.

This creates a widening and unsustainable gap between revenue and expenses for carriers.

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Demand Level & Outlook

Industrial & Manufacturing Demand

What’s happening: Industrial production for equipment (like machinery and electrical tools) has fallen 2.2% since April. New manufacturing orders have moved into contraction.
Why it matters: Reduced production means fewer long-haul shipments of machinery and industrial freight.
Tariffs on imported goods and machinery from China are making production more expensive, discouraging new orders.
Impact: Lower freight volumes from manufacturing and industrial sectors, especially for high-value, long-distance loads.

Tariffs & Trade Disruption

What’s happening:
- Goods from China carry a 10% tariff, with an additional 34% delayed until November 10.
- Tariffs on lumber, furniture, and cabinetry are already active.
- Truck parts may face 25–100% tariffs.
- The overall U.S. tariff rate could reach 20% by the end of the year.
Why it matters: Importers front-loaded shipments earlier in the year to avoid tariffs, leaving later volumes lower.
Impact: Softer import-driven freight in the second half of the year, especially at ports and intermodal hubs. Higher costs ripple through domestic supply chains.

Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs

Carrier Supply & Market Exits

What’s happening: More trucking companies exited than entered the market in Q3. Trucking employment is down 3.1% from last year.
Why it matters: Small carriers are struggling to absorb higher costs and are leaving the market, reducing total capacity.
Impact: Tightening capacity could stabilize or slightly increase rates even without stronger demand.

Regulations & Labor

What’s happening:
- A new FMCSA rule may remove up to 194,000 non-domiciled CDL drivers.
- Immigration enforcement is leading some drivers to exit the industry.
- Visa rule changes and the drug and alcohol clearinghouse continue to reduce the driver pool.
Why it matters: Fewer available drivers limit capacity, especially in southern and border regions.
- Impact: Tighter capacity raises spot rates in affected regions.

Spot & Contract Market Trends

Overall: The market remains supply-driven, not demand-driven. Freight volumes are flat, but rates are rising slightly due to tightening capacity.
Dry Van: $1.70 per mile nationally, steady but firming in the Midwest and southern border regions.
Reefer: $2.07 per mile, up sharply in Texas border markets due to immigration enforcement.
Flatbed: $2.07 per mile, stable but stronger in the Southeast.
Contract Rates: Mostly flat, with shippers still holding leverage in negotiations.
Impact: Spot rates are rising in certain lanes because of capacity constraints rather than increased demand.

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Demand Weakness Extends

Freight demand remains under pressure, with July marking the 30th consecutive month of shipment declines per Cass Information Systems. Shipments fell 1.8% month-over-month (↓1.7% seasonally adjusted) and 6.9% year-over-year, the steepest annual decline since January. Volumes have now contracted for three straight months, reflecting persistent weakness across freight markets.

Outlook

Tariff impacts: Ongoing steel/aluminum tariffs now cover $320B in imports, including truck trailers and industrial equipment. These are likely to create cost-push inflation and dampen demand in key freight-heavy industries.
Economic drag: Trade uncertainty and weak housing construction continue to weigh on freight activity.
Capacity shift ahead: Cass notes that lower commercial vehicle production and manufacturing job losses

Capacity is Tightening Modestly

Driver employment remains unstable.

Bureau of Labor Statistics: trucking employment ↑ 4,000 jobs in July after losses in May/June. Swings are driven by tariff timing; import frontloading creates short bursts of hiring, then pullbacks. With front-loading largely done and tariffs raising consumer prices, more driver job losses are likely.

Carrier Operating Costs

Equipment prices climbing with tariffs.

Tariffs have already added 2–4% to new tractor prices, with further increases likely. That makes fleet renewal/expansion harder to justify.

Fuel squeeze.

U.S. diesel averaging $3.81/gal (↑ slightly). Higher prices cut into margins, especially for small carriers lacking strong fuel surcharge recovery.

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