Spot Freight Archives

At Spot, we understand the vital role that up-to-date information plays in navigating the dynamic logistics market. Each month, we bring you a comprehensive logistics market update. We dive into the latest trends, challenges, and innovations shaping the logistics sector. Join us as we empower you with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions in this fast-paced industry. Market Update.

Demand Level & Outlook

Retail & Manufacturing Impacts

Importers cite persistent geopolitical and regulatory volatility, leading to:

Cautious inventory positions
Delayed orders
Tariff-related cost uncertainty

Manufacturers tied to Chinese imports are particularly strained, with shipments to the U.S. falling over 25% YoY.

Holiday Season 2025 Outlook

Retailers remain well-stocked, preventing shortages, but that is a sign of reduced ordering, not healthy demand and port trackers anticipate the slowest December since March 2023.

Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs

Massive Productivity Losses Shrink Effective Capacity

Lost driver time is effectively lost supply:

135.9 million hours lost annually due to detention.
1.2 billion hours lost annually due to congestion.

These productivity losses convert directly into higher operating costs and reduce the effective capacity available in the network.

Tariffs Are Increasing Equipment Costs

New heavy-duty truck tariffs took effect in November. Although less severe than expected, these new policies will increase tractor and parts costs, incentivize reshoring U.S. production, and delay OEM capacity expansions.

Spot & Contract Market Trends

Contract Rates: Stable but Unsustainably Low

Contract rates have been essentially flat since mid-2024, rising only 1% over the last 15 months. Despite this stability, they now sit just 16% above 2019 levels, even though carrier operating costs have increased roughly 33% in that same period.

This creates a widening and unsustainable gap between revenue and expenses for carriers.

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Demand Level & Outlook

Industrial & Manufacturing Demand

What’s happening: Industrial production for equipment (like machinery and electrical tools) has fallen 2.2% since April. New manufacturing orders have moved into contraction.
Why it matters: Reduced production means fewer long-haul shipments of machinery and industrial freight.
Tariffs on imported goods and machinery from China are making production more expensive, discouraging new orders.
Impact: Lower freight volumes from manufacturing and industrial sectors, especially for high-value, long-distance loads.

Tariffs & Trade Disruption

What’s happening:
- Goods from China carry a 10% tariff, with an additional 34% delayed until November 10.
- Tariffs on lumber, furniture, and cabinetry are already active.
- Truck parts may face 25–100% tariffs.
- The overall U.S. tariff rate could reach 20% by the end of the year.
Why it matters: Importers front-loaded shipments earlier in the year to avoid tariffs, leaving later volumes lower.
Impact: Softer import-driven freight in the second half of the year, especially at ports and intermodal hubs. Higher costs ripple through domestic supply chains.

Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs

Carrier Supply & Market Exits

What’s happening: More trucking companies exited than entered the market in Q3. Trucking employment is down 3.1% from last year.
Why it matters: Small carriers are struggling to absorb higher costs and are leaving the market, reducing total capacity.
Impact: Tightening capacity could stabilize or slightly increase rates even without stronger demand.

Regulations & Labor

What’s happening:
- A new FMCSA rule may remove up to 194,000 non-domiciled CDL drivers.
- Immigration enforcement is leading some drivers to exit the industry.
- Visa rule changes and the drug and alcohol clearinghouse continue to reduce the driver pool.
Why it matters: Fewer available drivers limit capacity, especially in southern and border regions.
- Impact: Tighter capacity raises spot rates in affected regions.

Spot & Contract Market Trends

Overall: The market remains supply-driven, not demand-driven. Freight volumes are flat, but rates are rising slightly due to tightening capacity.
Dry Van: $1.70 per mile nationally, steady but firming in the Midwest and southern border regions.
Reefer: $2.07 per mile, up sharply in Texas border markets due to immigration enforcement.
Flatbed: $2.07 per mile, stable but stronger in the Southeast.
Contract Rates: Mostly flat, with shippers still holding leverage in negotiations.
Impact: Spot rates are rising in certain lanes because of capacity constraints rather than increased demand.

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Labor Market

BLS will revise March 2025 employment down by 911k jobs (manufacturing ↓95k, wholesale trade ↓110k, professional/business services ↓158k).
Jobless claims are higher than 2023–2024 but still better than 2014–2016.

Tariff Pressures by Country

India: 25% emergency tariff on top of 25% existing , 87% of India’s exports to the U.S. are impacted tariffs.
Brazil: 40% emergency tariff on top of 10% base.
South Africa: Reciprocal tariffs 31%, metals/steel already facing 50%.
Canada: 35% reciprocal tariffs, especially autos, steel, and inputs.

Tariff-Driven Cost Pressures

Steel & aluminum tariffs increase van trailer prices ↑ 16–28%.
Other heavy-duty trailers (flatbeds, dumps) ↑ 17–30%.
Class 8 trucks & tractors ↑ 15–24%.
Raw material costs overall ↑ 9–12%.
Additional non-USMCA and reciprocal tariffs add 1–6% across segments.
Rising material costs from tariffs are pushing up the price of both trucks and trailers. Fleets are cautious, waiting for clarity before committing to new purchases.

Current Market Signals

Regionally, produce and holiday shipping are creating localized tightness, but it isn’t enough to offset the broader softening.

Seasonal forces are visible. Reefer load-to-truck ratios are elevated (9.26 loads per truck) and flatbed volumes spiked (22.02 loads per truck) with construction, yet both sectors still saw rates fall by $0.03/mile. This shows how trend pressure is overpowering seasonal lifts.

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Demand Weakness Extends

Freight demand remains under pressure, with July marking the 30th consecutive month of shipment declines per Cass Information Systems. Shipments fell 1.8% month-over-month (↓1.7% seasonally adjusted) and 6.9% year-over-year, the steepest annual decline since January. Volumes have now contracted for three straight months, reflecting persistent weakness across freight markets.

Outlook

Tariff impacts: Ongoing steel/aluminum tariffs now cover $320B in imports, including truck trailers and industrial equipment. These are likely to create cost-push inflation and dampen demand in key freight-heavy industries.
Economic drag: Trade uncertainty and weak housing construction continue to weigh on freight activity.
Capacity shift ahead: Cass notes that lower commercial vehicle production and manufacturing job losses

Capacity is Tightening Modestly

Driver employment remains unstable.

Bureau of Labor Statistics: trucking employment ↑ 4,000 jobs in July after losses in May/June. Swings are driven by tariff timing; import frontloading creates short bursts of hiring, then pullbacks. With front-loading largely done and tariffs raising consumer prices, more driver job losses are likely.

Carrier Operating Costs

Equipment prices climbing with tariffs.

Tariffs have already added 2–4% to new tractor prices, with further increases likely. That makes fleet renewal/expansion harder to justify.

Fuel squeeze.

U.S. diesel averaging $3.81/gal (↑ slightly). Higher prices cut into margins, especially for small carriers lacking strong fuel surcharge recovery.

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A Front-Loaded Year with Fading Momentum

Q1 2025 truckload volumes were buoyed by a 19% quarter-over-quarter spike in freight-moving imports, as shippers rushed to bring in goods ahead of anticipated tariffs.
That activity has since cooled: dry van volumes are forecast to fall 0.9% YoY in 2025, and total truckload volume is expected to remain flat for the year.
While manufacturing activity was strong early in the year, it is now slowing, reducing its contribution to freight demand. The goods transport sector, excluding services, is expected to grow by only 2.5% in 2025, and most of that growth is already behind us.

Tariffs Are the Central Disruptor

U.S. effective average tariff rate has risen to 20.6% pre-substitution, the highest level since 1910. After substitutions in sourcing/import behavior, the effective rate remains 19.7%, still the highest since 1933.
Tariffs implemented so far in 2025 are forecast to reduce U.S. real GDP growth by -0.9 percentage points this year and shrink the long-run size of the U.S. economy by 0.5%, or $135 billion annually.
The average U.S. household will lose $2,800 in purchasing power in 2025 due to higher consumer prices stemming from tariffs.

Shrinking Labor Pool and Excess Equipment

The market continues to struggle with a capacity overhang, despite signs of structural tightening:

Truck capacity declined by 2.2%
Carrier attrition is trending at a 1.7% annual rate
Class 8 truck orders dropped 45% year-over-year, suggesting fewer equipment investments ahead
Drivers per truck fell to 0.93, and non-driver staff levels declined 6.8%

Cost Shocks Around the Corner

Although not an immediate operational cost, looming tariff changes threaten to further disrupt carrier economics:

A 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports could suppress new truck sales by 17% in 2025.
Steel tariffs have pushed cold-rolled steel prices up 9.4%, increasing the cost of truck manufacturing and repairs.

These upstream effects will likely be passed downstream, contributing to long-term operating cost inflation.

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Canadian Tariffs Surge: A Hidden Shock

While China has dominated the headlines, Canadian imports are bearing the brunt of new tariffs under the current administration:

•Average monthly tariffs in 2024: $34M
•March & April 2025 tariffs: $660M and $675M, a 19.5x increase
•June is expected to surge again due to 50% tariffs on steel/metal

Top affected categories

•Unwrought aluminum: $123.7M
•Auto parts: $67.5M
•Finished vehicles: $52.2M

Operating Costs: Inflation Without Pricing Power

Stagflation Strains Margins: Carriers face the worst of both worlds, flat volumes and rates paired with rising costs. This stagflationary environment has forced many into cost-deferral decisions that may backfire long term (e.g., delayed maintenance, equipment replacement).

Insurance a Top Pressure Point: Premiums are skyrocketing due to increased litigation and nuclear verdicts (claims >$10M). Carriers are also contending with cargo theft risks, including sophisticated scams like identity manipulation and double brokering.

Supply & Capacity: A Market in Contraction

Carrier Exits Hit New High: In April 2025, 7,474 trucking companies exited the market, a 12-month peak and a 26% increase from March. Weekly revocation rates remain elevated, with more than 1,500 carriers losing authority each week.
New Entrants Defy the Trend: Despite exits, new carrier authorities rose 48% month over month in April. Seasonal optimism and the lure of an eventual rate rebound keep new players entering the market, though many may be underestimating the financial headwinds.

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Back-to-School Shipping May Provide Demand Boost

The market could see a short-term lift as retailers ramp up orders ahead of the back-to-school season. The 90-day pause in tariffs between the U.S. and China is encouraging importers, especially small to mid-sized retailers, to move quickly while trade conditions are favorable.

Bookings for U.S.-China freight are already up 50% week-over-week. Experts expect higher volumes to hit West Coast ports by late June, just as the produce season peaks. This will likely increase demand for trucks and trains to move goods inland, putting upward pressure on spot rates. While many carriers have lowered Q2 expectations, this import surge could lead to stronger-than-expected results.

Policy Wildcards

The English Language Proficiency (ELP) mandate could sideline thousands of drivers if strictly enforced, potentially cutting capacity and pushing rates up by 15%, per analysts.

Tariffs Amplify Equipment and Parts Inflation

•Equipment costs are expected to rise by low single-digit percentages, according to Werner, particularly if the 30% U.S. tariff on Chinese imports persists beyond the temporary rollback.

•OEM pricing is fluid, but used truck values remain strong, providing a partial hedge.

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Tariff Timeline Driving Demand Disruption

• April 2 – “Liberation Day”:
• 10% universal tariff on all imports (excl. Canada/Mexico), effective April 5
• “Reciprocal” tariffs on 60+ countries (China: 54%, Vietnam: 46%, EU: 20%)
• Announcement of De Minimis elimination for Chinese imports, effective May 2

• April 5 – Import volumes momentarily surge as tariffs take effect

• April 8 – U.S. raises China tariffs to 120%; Chinese-made electronics no longer exempt

• April 9–11 – China retaliates with 125% tariffs, rare earth export bans, and blacklisting U.S. firms

• April 10 – U.S. imposes a 90-day global tariff suspension, but raises China’s rate to 125%

• April 15 (projected) – EU rolls out $23B in retaliatory tariffs

LTL and Parcel Holding Steady as Warning Signs Emerge

LTL cost per shipment rose 1.5% quarter over quarter in Q1 2025, supported by fuel surcharges and GRIs, but faces looming softness tied to industrial slowdown and tariff impact on manufacturing inputs. The PMI returned to contraction in March, signaling a risk of near-term volume erosion.

Carrier Operating Costs Rise Under New Tariff Burden

Parts and Maintenance Costs Climbing: “Bolts, bars, anything with steel” is now significantly more expensive. Even with heavy-duty trucks exempt from direct tariffs, indirect exposure is high. Preventive maintenance is being delayed, potentially leading to increased breakdowns and rental costs.

Tariff-Induced Uncertainty: Companies are stalling investments due to policy whiplash. The White House’s 90-day “pause” came days after declaring tariffs permanent, freezing expansion plans, and curbing capital deployment.

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The State of Tariffs and Their Impact on Supply Chains

U.S. Tariff on Canadian Aluminum (50%)

The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on aluminum imports from Canada and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from most countries. The U.S. produces only 670,000 tons of primary aluminum annually, while it imports over 2 million tons from Canada.

Industries Affected:

Automotive: Higher material costs for vehicle production.
Packaging: Increased costs for aluminum cans and food containers.
Manufacturing: Rising expenses for aluminum-based products.

U.S.-China Trade War Intensifies

The U.S. has added a 20% blanket tariff on top of existing 10% duties on Chinese imports. China has responded with up to 15% tariffs on U.S. farm goods like chicken and pork. The U.S. has also signed a measure allowing for reciprocal tariffs by April 2.

Industries Affected:

Agriculture: Farmers face declining exports and higher storage costs for unsold goods.
Retail & Consumer Goods: Increased costs for Chinese-manufactured goods, affecting pricing and inventory planning.

Carrier Operating Costs and Freight Rates

Despite falling fuel prices, carrier operating costs remain elevated. Long-haul spot market operating costs averaged $1.80 per mile in February 2025, consistent with 2024 levels but still $0.18 per mile higher than pre-pandemic rates in 2019.

Meanwhile, dry van linehaul rates have struggled to keep pace with rising expenses. February spot rates averaged $1.66 per mile nationally, only $0.04 above 2019 levels, reinforcing concerns about profitability for smaller carriers.

Tariff Impact on Carrier Costs

Potential job losses: Rising costs may force businesses to cut logistics

Higher fuel costs: If tariffs disrupt global oil imports, diesel prices may rise despite recent declines.

Increased compliance costs: Carriers will need to invest in updated documentation, customs declarations, and compliance checks.

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Inflationary Pressures from Tariffs

The economic dynamics of tariffs indicate a direct inflationary impact on manufacturers and, consequently, on the freight sector.

•Aluminum: The U.S. imports ~47% of its aluminum, mostly from Canada. Tariffs will increase costs, prompting both importers and domestic producers to raise prices.

•Steel: Only ~13% of U.S. steel is imported, yet past behavior (e.g., 2018 tariffs) suggests that domestic mills will follow suit by raising prices.

Cross-Border Freight: Laredo Sees Capacity Constraints

Rejection Rates & Trade Uncertainty

Laredo, Texas, the largest U.S.-Mexico freight crossing, has seen rejection rates climb to their highest levels since the pandemic era. The Outbound Tender Reject Index rose from a 3.8% average (October–mid-December) to over 6% in late December and remains elevated.

This increase suggests that market tightening is influenced by more than demand, which has been running 10% higher year-over-year. One potential factor is trade uncertainty, as fluctuating U.S. tariff policies on Mexico drive shippers to accelerate cross-border shipments before potential cost increases.

The Closing Gap: Spot vs. Contract Rates

The gap between dry van truckload contract and spot rates (excluding estimated fuel costs) has narrowed steadily over the past 2.5 years. This trend is driven by gradual capacity reduction and slow yet consistent demand growth, reshaping freight dynamics despite going largely unnoticed by market participants.

Contract Rates Begin to Rebound

Most contract rate declines happened in 2023, continuing into late 2024 before rebounding slightly. Leading into peak season (Nov-Dec 2024), the spot-contract spread hovered at 16%, compared to 10-15% in 2029. A key shift in market expectation may be influencing pricing decisions, as stakeholders anticipate tightening capacity.

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