Spot November 2024 Market Update


At Spot, we understand the vital role that up-to-date information plays in navigating the dynamic logistics market. Each month, we bring you a comprehensive logistics market update. We dive into the latest trends, challenges, and innovations shaping the logistics sector. Join us as we empower you with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions in this fast-paced industry. Market Update.

The market is showing early signs of recovery after a prolonged downturn. While manufacturing growth remains sluggish, rising tender rejections and tighter capacity hint at a more balanced, carrier-favorable market on the horizon.  

Demand Levels & Outlook

Rising Rejections and Tight Capacity Indicate Market Recovery 
Tender rejections are rising, and capacity is tightening — signs of positive momentum for carriers. While slow growth in the manufacturing sector tempers broader optimism, a clear shift toward a more balanced market is expected by early 2025. The Outbound Tender Volume Index dropped 2.24% week-over-week and 1.87% year-over-year, while contract load accepted volumes fell by 2.1% week-over-week and 3.89% year-over-year. On a positive note, short-haul volumes have increased slightly, suggesting some stabilization. 

Freight growth in Q3 2024 was modest, up just 0.1%. Meanwhile, container imports from China surged to pre-2019 tariff levels as businesses rushed to get ahead of impending tariff hikes, likely leading to higher product prices in the coming months. 

Warehousing Investment and Import Trends 
Investment in warehouse construction remains high—30% above 2017 levels—but has declined by 20% year-over-year due to rising interest rates and high vacancy rates. October’s import volumes fell by 6% compared to last year as shippers avoided peak surcharges and prepared for tariff hikes. Disruptions on the East Coast, including port strikes and regulatory changes, have impacted logistics. Moreover, new driver regulations could potentially remove 177,000 drivers from the workforce, further straining capacity. 

Intermodal Gains Momentum Amid Freight Shifts 
Intermodal volumes are gaining momentum over truckload, with long-haul intermodal routes, such as Los Angeles to Chicago, carrying substantial freight. Intermodal volumes grew by 8% year-over-year, while reefer volumes saw slight growth. This shift to intermodal on major routes has helped reduce weekly truckload pressure by 2,200 to 2,500 loads. expansion, while freight volumes remain weak, down 5.2% year-over-year.

Supply, Capacity & Carrier Costs

Deferred Maintenance Challenges for Independent Truckers 
Independent truckers are facing rising costs and unsustainable deferred maintenance. With average truck payments nearing $3,000 per month, owner-operators are under significant financial pressure. Maintenance costs have spiked due to deferred upkeep, and overall carrier costs have increased by 15-20% compared to pre-COVID levels. Diesel expenses remain a major budget concern despite some price moderation. 

Flatbed Rejections Amid Hurricane Relief 
While capacity appears to be stabilizing for larger carriers, flatbed rejection rates remain elevated, partly due to ongoing hurricane relief efforts. New truck orders are down 5.2% year-over-year as fleets cautiously manage their growth. Drivers are also putting in more miles—now averaging 93,000 miles annually—as they work to maximize their assets.

Contract & Spot Market Rate Trends

Spot Rates Surge Beyond Contract Rates 
The gap between spot and contract rates continues to narrow as capacity rebalances across different freight modes. Dry van spot rates have increased by $0.04 per mile since October and are expected to rise by another $0.09 by mid-December. At the same time, reefer rates are experiencing a seasonal uptick, peaking around Thanksgiving, while flatbed rates are also following seasonal trends. 

The average spot rate has risen to $2.35 per mile, up $0.12 from last year, while the dry van contract rate stands at $2.33 per mile, reducing the spot-contract gap by $0.12 year-over-year. This narrowing gap has shifted carrier priorities toward spot opportunities which offer better profit margins. 

Capacity Rebalancing Boosts Spot Rate Increases 
Spot rate increases are visible across multiple freight modes and are driven by rebalancing capacity. However, the dry van load-to-truck ratio has dropped to 4.03, reflecting reduced freight volumes. Reefer load-to-truck ratios remain high at 6.61, showing strong demand even with reduced produce volumes. 

Market Update.

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October 2024 Market Update Spot


At Spot, we understand the vital role that up-to-date information plays in navigating the dynamic logistics market. Each month, we bring you a comprehensive logistics market update. We dive into the latest trends, challenges, and innovations shaping the logistics sector. Join us as we empower you with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions in this fast-paced industry. Market Update.

Demand Levels & Outlook

Hurricane Milton’s Impact

Hurricane Milton disrupted supply chains, particularly in Florida, with Port Tampa Bay closures causing congestion at alternative ports. Road and rail closures, coupled with damage to Florida’s citrus industry, have created significant supply chain disruptions and delays.

Port Strike Aftermath

The recent East and Gulf Coast port strike led to backlogs, which are expected to take 3-4 weeks to clear. Shippers rerouted freight to other ports, increasing congestion.

Market Momentum

The Transportation Utilization Index fell slightly to 57.6, indicating slower expansion, while freight volumes remain weak, down 5.2% year-over-year.

Supply, Capacity & Carrier Costs

Capacity Crunch

Capacity remains tight, particularly for flatbed and reefer carriers affected by Hurricane Milton. The Transportation Capacity Index held steady at 50, signaling no change in capacity.

Warehouse Costs & Fuel

Warehouse prices surged as retailers prepare for the holiday season, while freight expenditures dropped 6.6% year-over-year, driven by a 4% drop in diesel prices.

Contract & Spot Market Rate Trends

Spot Market Freight Rates Remain Steady

Despite disruptions, spot market freight rates have held relatively stable. The Outbound Tender Rejection Index increased slightly to 5.62%, signaling tighter conditions in hurricane-impacted areas. FEMA’s disaster relief efforts are expected to increase competition for loads.

Contract Rates Stabilizing

Contract rates are down 2% year-over-year but are stabilizing. As capacity tightens for the holiday season, certain lanes, particularly those in hurricane-hit regions, are seeing rising rates.

Market Update.

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September 2024 Market Update Spot


At Spot, we understand the vital role that up-to-date information plays in navigating the dynamic logistics market. Each month, we bring you a comprehensive logistics market update. We dive into the latest trends, challenges, and innovations shaping the logistics sector. Join us as we empower you with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions in this fast-paced industry. Market Update.

The freight market in September 2024 continues to steer through a challenging environment of fluctuating demand, shifting capacity, and evolving economic pressures. Key indicators such as freight demand, capacity constraints, and freight pricing are shaping the industry, with significant implications for both shippers and carriers.  

Volume Dips Slightly, but Retail and E-Commerce Boost Demand 

Freight demand has shown resilience, with sectors such as retail driving growth. Real median household incomes have seen a 3.96% increase from the previous year, bolstering consumer spending and supporting freight demand across various industries, particularly retail and e-commerce. Freight volume trends for September 2024 indicate a slight dip, with the For-Hire Trucking Ton-Mile Index reporting a 0.3% year-over-year decline in July 2024, the smallest negative shift since early 2023. This minor contraction reflects stabilizing demand, with expectations of improvement in early 2025 as interest rates potentially decrease. 

Manufacturing and freight demand are also intertwined, with industries such as motor vehicle and parts manufacturing contributing about 5% of total trucking demand. However, capacity constraints in freight are influencing overall market dynamics, particularly as the automotive sector faces production slowdowns due to high dealer inventories. 

Freight Market Sees Slight Spot Rate Decline Amid Increased Carrier Availability 

In September 2024, spot freight rates saw a marginal decline, reflecting seasonal downturns and lower urgency in shipments. The National Truckload Index (Linehaul Only) dropped from 1.71 to 1.66, indicating slightly lower spot market rates. This decline points to either decreased demand or an increase in carrier availability, further easing the pressure on spot rates. 

On the other hand, contract freight rates have remained relatively stable. The slight increase in the Outbound Tender Reject Index, from 4.41 to 4.45, signals a tightening in capacity on specific routes, as carriers show a preference for higher spot market rates over contracted loads. This trend, though subtle, highlights the delicate balance between spot vs. contract market dynamics. 

In the broader context, carrier operating costs have been mitigated by lower fuel prices, which are now averaging $3.56 per gallon. This is a significant decrease from previous highs, providing some relief for carriers despite lower freight rates. 

Capacity Rebalances as Truckload Payrolls Drop 4.4% 

Freight capacity outlook for September 2024 reflects a nuanced picture. While dry van truckload payrolls have decreased by 4.4% since December 2022, carrier availability has remained steady. The reduction in payrolls aligns with early 2019 capacity levels, pointing to a gradual rebalancing of supply and demand. However, logistics challenges in 2024, such as capacity constraints, persist in specific sectors, influencing rates and freight cost drivers. 

Recent declines in load-to-truck ratios across all major equipment types, including a van ratio decrease from 3.86 in August to 3.27 in September, indicate a softening in freight demand. These ratios, sourced from DAT One Marketplace, provide valuable insights into current market conditions, suggesting lower demand relative to available trucks. 

ILA Port Strike Impact

The port strike disruption poses a significant threat to supply chains. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), representing 85,000 dockworkers, seeks wage increases, job security, and protection against automation. With no agreement in place, this strike could halt 50% of U.S. import/export activity, stranding cargo, rerouting goods, and driving up costs Immediate impacts include escalating costs for goods like food, vehicles, and electronics, with ocean carriers announcing surcharges as high as $3,000 per container. The operational backlog from even a short strike could last weeks.

With ripple effects spanning multiple sectors, from retail to agriculture, a prolonged strike could cost the U.S. economy up to $5 billion daily.

Shippers Turn to Long-Term Contracts to Mitigate Spot Market Volatility 

The broader economic environment continues to influence the freight market. The recent uptick in real median household incomes supports consumer spending, a crucial driver of freight demand. However, the ongoing economic impact on freight is complex, with uncertainties surrounding future supply chain trends. Events such as the 2024 U.S. presidential election and potential disruptions in global supply chains could further impact freight volumes and pricing. 

The ongoing balance between supply and demand also shapes freight market trends for September 2024. While freight volume has remained relatively stable, factors such as fluctuating fuel costs and external disruptions—like port strikes—could affect long-term market dynamics. Shippers are increasingly looking to lock in long-term contracts to secure capacity and avoid the volatility seen in the spot market. 

Market Update.

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More Than a Broker


At Spot, we understand the vital role that up-to-date information plays in navigating the dynamic logistics market. Each month, we bring you a comprehensive logistics market update. We dive into the latest trends, challenges, and innovations shaping the logistics sector. Join us as we empower you with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions in this fast-paced industry.

Demand Levels & Outlook

The Freightwaves Outbound Tender Reject Index (OTRI) dropped slightly to 4.49%. This is 1.11% higher than last year and 0.64% higher than in 2019. This shows that rejection rates are rising, putting pressure on shippers and increasing costs in the trucking industry.

In the residential sector, sluggish single-family home sales and weak investment have kept building material demand low. Meanwhile, the agriculture, automotive, and energy sectors of the trucking market are reducing freight volumes. Agriculture is dealing with low crop prices, automotive shipping has decreased due to weak sales, and energy is experiencing a 14% drop in oil and gas drilling compared to last year. This lack of investment in these sectors reflects an industry trend towards reduced freight volumes and suggests that the freight recession will continue until 2024. As a result, the recovery of the truckload market may not happen until around mid-2025.

Despite a 1.24% week-over-week dip in tender volumes, the year-over-year figure is up 1.87%, driven by a 25% increase in short-haul freight. In mode-specific insights, the dry van market declined 1.8% last week, dipping 0.05% year-over-year, while the reefer market saw a 0.92% decline last week but remains up 1.35% year-over-year, with rates rising 13% since April.


Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs

This market update saw mixed capacity dynamics, with only 53 of 135 markets experiencing rising rejection rates, down from 67 last week. Southern California declined, while Houston’s rates rose by 2.49%, signaling volatility in freight prices.

In recent freight news, the trucking industry is adapting to fluctuating market conditions. According to the latest data, the national average diesel price increased by 3 cents per gallon, now standing at $4.56. This rise in fuel costs is likely to affect overall transportation expenses and may impact contract negotiations in the coming weeks.

Dry van rejection rates slightly decreased by 0.06% week-over-week but remained 1.17% higher year-over-year, reflecting a stable yet tightening market. Reefer rejection rates dropped by 0.48%, though Ontario, CA, saw a 5.80% spike, with rates up 2.76% year-over-year. Flatbed rates increased by 0.36% weekly but are down 2.14% year-over-year, indicating pressure from the industrial sector. Dry van spot market rates held steady at $2.29 per mile, up $0.07 year-over-year, while contract rates rose to $2.31 per mile, $0.05 lower year-over-year. The narrowing spread between spot and contract rates suggests potential shifts around Labor Day. The dry van market remains subdued, with possible pressure on the reefer market as carriers switch sectors. Without a demand surge, significant market growth is unlikely despite capacity reductions.


Contract & Spot Market Rate Trends

In August, news in trucking was notably stable, with spot freight rates remaining steady at levels similar to those observed around Memorial Day. Although rejection rates, a key indicator of freight market shifts, have remained unchanged, the approaching Labor Day holiday may lead to a rise in these rates, potentially causing a surge in spot rates akin to the Fourth of July.

The Freightwaves National Truckload Index (NTI) has slightly decreased by $0.02 per mile to $2.29 per mile but is still up $0.06 per mile year-over-year, reflecting a 2.7% increase. The NTIL, or Linehaul Index, also saw a minor decrease to $1.71 per mile, though it remains $0.14 per mile higher than last year.

Dry van contract rates have remained steady at $2.31 per mile over the past week, showing stability in 2024 but a slight year-over-year decline of 5 cents per mile, or 2%. The spread between NTIL and dry van contract rates is nearing pre-pandemic levels due to recent increases in contract rates.

In the refrigerated load market, spot rates have been rising, with the Refrigerated Truckload Index up 13% since April. These increases are attributed to broader market conditions rather than seasonal factors. However, contract rates for refrigerated loads continue to face pressure, with expectations for further rate reductions and no major demand shocks.

Market Update.

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At Spot, we understand the vital role that up-to-date information plays in navigating the dynamic logistics market. Each month, we bring you a comprehensive logistics market update. We dive into the latest trends, challenges, and innovations shaping the logistics sector. Join us as we empower you with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions in this fast-paced industry.

Demand Levels & Outlook

The food industry is a major force in U.S. trucking, accounting for 15% of total shipping tonnage and involving 20 million heavy shipments annually. Seasonal peaks in ice cream and produce require flexible trucking solutions. However, challenges exist. Declining food exports and a moderate import increase mean less demand for truckloads. Hurricane Beryl may cause temporary disruptions, but the national impact is likely limited. Future considerations include potential softening in motor vehicle production, but also potential growth from reshoring and electric vehicle development. Overall, food manufacturing remains a key driver, but the trucking industry must adapt to evolving trends. 


Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs

U.S. manufacturing weathered the Red Sea crisis surprisingly well, with material shortages easing significantly. However, longer shipping routes and port congestion are raising carrier costs. The trucking industry faces a different set of challenges. A glut of trucks caused by government loans during COVID-19 is keeping rates low, potentially forcing smaller carriers out of business and leading to a capacity crunch in 2025. The industry saw a significant number of exits in April, highlighting the overall strain. 


Contract & Spot Market Rate Trends

The 4th of July holiday caused a significant drop in freight activity across the board, but spot rates remained steady or even rose slightly. Hurricane Beryl and labor disputes on the East and West Coasts could further tighten capacity and impact rates in specific regions. California’s import surge might drive up spot rates, while Midwest steel production decline leads to lower rates. Labor issues in Canada add uncertainty to agricultural freight markets. Overall, the ability of spot rates to stay high through Labor Day hinges on future demand and capacity adjustments. 

spotinc.com

More Than a Broker


At Spot, we understand the vital role that up-to-date information plays in navigating the dynamic logistics market. Each month, we bring you a comprehensive logistics market update. We dive into the latest trends, challenges, and innovations shaping the logistics sector. Join us as we empower you with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions in this fast-paced industry.

Demand Levels & Outlook

The market shows stability with resilience in sectors like home improvement and groceries, fueled by nearshoring initiatives. Anticipated improvements in spot rates are expected by Q3 2024, though a full recovery remains uncertain. Geopolitical challenges highlight the need for proactive measures. In the LTL market, disciplined pricing persists post-Yellow fallout. Preparing for produce season requires strategic partnerships and technology optimization to navigate tightening capacities effectively.


Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs

The market’s mix of supply, capacity, and costs, outlined by the Logistics Manager’s Index (LMI), reflects various dynamics. Mexican carriers influence capacity while rising costs and bid season activity challenge profitability. Despite steady intermodal volumes, carriers face margin pressures from fuel price increases. Adapting to these complexities demands strategic planning and flexibility in the freight landscape.


Contract & Spot Market Rate Trends

March shows shifts in Contract & Spot Market Rate Trends, hinting at a return to normalcy. Spot rates surpassed contracts during the COVID freight surge, disrupting equilibrium. As rates realign, carriers may favor spot opportunities, possibly increasing rejection rates. New carrier registrations offer optimism amid volatility, while inflationary pressures prompt strategic planning. Navigating this requires adaptability and foresight amidst evolving trends.

spotinc.com

More Than a Broker


At Spot, we understand the vital role that up-to-date information plays in navigating the dynamic logistics market. Each month, we bring you a comprehensive logistics market update. We dive into the latest trends, challenges, and innovations shaping the logistics sector. Join us as we empower you with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions in this fast-paced industry.

Demand Levels & Outlook

The market shows stability with resilience in sectors like home improvement and groceries, fueled by nearshoring initiatives. Anticipated improvements in spot rates are expected by Q3 2024, though a full recovery remains uncertain. Geopolitical challenges highlight the need for proactive measures. In the LTL market, disciplined pricing persists post-Yellow fallout. Preparing for produce season requires strategic partnerships and technology optimization to navigate tightening capacities effectively.


Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs

The market’s mix of supply, capacity, and costs, outlined by the Logistics Manager’s Index (LMI), reflects various dynamics. Mexican carriers influence capacity while rising costs and bid season activity challenge profitability. Despite steady intermodal volumes, carriers face margin pressures from fuel price increases. Adapting to these complexities demands strategic planning and flexibility in the freight landscape.


Contract & Spot Market Rate Trends

March shows shifts in Contract & Spot Market Rate Trends, hinting at a return to normalcy. Spot rates surpassed contracts during the COVID freight surge, disrupting equilibrium. As rates realign, carriers may favor spot opportunities, possibly increasing rejection rates. New carrier registrations offer optimism amid volatility, while inflationary pressures prompt strategic planning. Navigating this requires adaptability and foresight amidst evolving trends.

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Demand Levels & Outlook

Logistics Market Update. The market indicates an improving outlook driven by manufacturing sector expansion and increased import-driven freight volumes. Despite a temporary dip post-Easter, freight demand remains resilient, with potential order upticks and positive early April trends. However, there are mixed signals, with the need for close monitoring of the OTRI’s impact on market capacity and pricing. Overall, the industry appears cautiously optimistic about heightened demand levels. Logistics Market Update.


Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs

The trucking industry faces both opportunities and challenges. Legislative developments such as tax relief aim to boost capacity and efficiency. However, geopolitical tensions disrupt ocean freight, leading to capacity constraints and rate instability. Managing Mexican transportation capacity remains complex, requiring innovative solutions. Infrastructure disruptions underscore the need for resilient supply chains. Meanwhile, surging operating costs squeeze trucking profits, exacerbating financial strain for carriers.


Contract & Spot Market Rate Trends

The market experiences persistent challenges with rates below pre-COVID levels, but signs of improvement emerge, particularly with the upcoming produce season on the West Coast. Anticipation of rate fluctuations exists, especially in lanes like California’s Central Valley to Chicago. While spot rates decline in some segments, flatbed contract rates show slight increases. Contract rates remain stable, but there’s potential for downward movement as shippers aim for lean inventories. Despite a year-over-year decline, positive momentum in spot market rates indicates gradual improvement, albeit with expected fluctuations during the upcoming produce season.

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Demand Levels & Outlook

Logistics Market Update. The market shows stability with resilience in sectors like home improvement and groceries, fueled by nearshoring initiatives. Anticipated improvements in spot rates are expected by Q3 2024, though a full recovery remains uncertain. Geopolitical challenges highlight the need for proactive measures. In the LTL market, disciplined pricing persists post-Yellow fallout. Preparing for produce season requires strategic partnerships and technology optimization to navigate tightening capacities effectively.

Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs

The market’s mix of supply, capacity, and costs, outlined by the Logistics Manager’s Index (LMI), reflects various dynamics. Mexican carriers influence capacity, while rising costs and bid season activity challenge profitability. Despite steady intermodal volumes, carriers face margin pressures from fuel price increases. Adapting to these complexities demands strategic planning and flexibility in the freight landscape.

Contract & Spot Market Rate Trends

March shows shifts in Contract & Spot Market Rate Trends, hinting at a return to normalcy. Spot rates surpassed contracts during the COVID freight surge, disrupting equilibrium. As rates realign, carriers may favor spot opportunities, possibly increasing rejection rates. New carrier registrations offer optimism amid volatility, while inflationary pressures prompt strategic planning. Navigating this requires adaptability and foresight amidst evolving trends.

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