The freight market continues to send mixed signals. AI and data center construction are driving demand while manufacturing remains in expansion territory. At the same time, carrier capacity continues to contract, operating costs are rising, and diesel has reached a record high.
Spot rates have eased from recent highs, but remain well above last year. Here’s a look at the forces shaping the market and what to watch next.
Demand Level & Outlook
AI construction is carrying freight demand while factory growth cools
Data center construction continues to drive freight demand. Construction spending reached another record in July, with the index at 545 compared with a 2022 average of 100, meaning data center construction is now 5.45 times its level of three years ago.
+52%: Data center construction spending, year over year
+187.2: Index points added
Manufacturing plants pull back
Manufacturing plant construction spending fell 25% year over year, even as data center construction continued to surge.
ISM August reading
- Manufacturing PMI: 54.6 (-1.0)
- New Orders: 53.7 (-3.0)
- Production: 58.3
- Backlog of orders: 51.8 (-3.2)
- Employment: 51.2
- Prices: 71.1
Factory demand still expanding
The ISM Manufacturing PMI remained above 50 in August, marking an eighth consecutive month of expansion. New orders and backlogs cooled, but manufacturing activity continues to support freight demand.
Where is the freight moving
The data center buildout is reshaping freight patterns, particularly in rural markets.
- 67% of planned developments are rural.
- 39% are in counties with no existing data centers.
- Flatbed and heavy haul remain the tightest equipment segments.
- Truck traffic is increasing across Georgia and Texas.
- Rail-to-site drayage is adding short-haul LTL volume.
Capacity is the other half
Transportation capacity remained in contraction in August, with the Logistics Managers’ Index recording a capacity reading of 40 while transportation prices reached 90.
Shippers are paying for tight trucks, not simply booming freight volume.
Supply, Capacity, and Carrier Operating Costs
Diesel seta a record
Retail diesel reached an all-time high of $5.85 per gallon on September 4, equivalent to approximately $245.70 per barrel for a fleet paying the national average.
Crude prices are elevated, but refining margins are a major factor behind what carriers are paying at the pump.
Inventories are not building
Distillate stocks remain 10% below last year, while exports are running 25% above 2025 levels. Refiners are operating at 97% utilization, indicating the constraint is not simply refinery capacity.
Cost per mile at an all-time high
ATRI reported an average truck operating cost of $2.336 per mile in 2025, up 3.4% and the highest in the study’s history. Major cost increases included:
- Tolls: +13.2%
- Repair and maintenance: +8.6%
- Driver benefits: +6.6%
- Tires: +6.4%
- Operating cost excluding fuel: +4.2%
Why maintenance is rising
Fleets are running older trucks more miles to avoid high equipment costs. Larger fleets increased equipment spending, while smaller fleets spent less than the year before.
Capacity keeps leaving
Carriers continue to remove trucks from the market as thin margins pressure fleet economics.
- Truck counts fell 2.4%.
- Another 10% of trucks sat unseated.
- Non-driver staffing declined 7.8%.
- Truckload and reefer margins remained below 1%.
- Flatbed averaged a 0.5% loss.
The LMI read
Transportation capacity remained firmly in contraction in August, although the rate of contraction slowed 11.6 points.
Spot & Contract Market Trends
Rates hold near their highs as trucks return, but capacity is still far short of last year
Spot rates have moderated, but remain significantly above last year’s levels across all three major equipment types.
Dry Van Spot Rates
$2.21/mi national average
+33.6% vs. last year
+21.4% vs. nine-year average
Load posts remain 42.2% above last year, while truck posts remain 17.2% below last year. The 35-day forecast puts dry van rates at approximately $2.20 per mile in mid-October.
Reefer Spot Rates
$2.74/mi national average
+34.4% vs. last year
+27.2% vs. nine-year average
Load posts remain 70.8% above last year, while truck posts remain 18.7% below last year. The 35-day forecast puts reefer rates at approximately $2.68 per mile in mid-October.
Flatbed Spot Rates
$2.66/mi national average
+31.2% vs. last year
+26.1% vs. nine-year average
Load posts remain 46.2% above last year, while truck posts remain 11.0% below last year. The 35-day forecast puts flatbed rates at approximately $2.63 per mile in mid-October.
Key takeaway
Truck availability remains down double digits from a year ago across every equipment type, keeping rates near their highs.
While rates may continue to moderate seasonally, the underlying capacity imbalance remains a key factor heading into the months ahead.